CTH Staff: Who will be the Astros Opening Day Starter?

Opening Day is right around the corner, which Astros pitcher will get the ball on April 1?

With Opening Day approaching, the Houston Astros do not have their solidified ace like in years past with pitchers like Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander, who is expected to miss all of the season due to his Tommy John surgery. This leaves it up to speculation, if Dusty Baker is giving the ball to the most experienced pitcher on staff or will a new talent hit the bump on the first of April.

The Astros have three solid candidates in Lance McCullers Jr., Zack Greinke and Framber Valdez as possible starters for Opening Day, but before it is announced, we have left it up to the staff writers here at Climbing Tal’s Hill. While these three pitchers could possibly be aces on other MLB teams, it is a tough discussion for the Astros moving forward.

Matthew Kunkel, Contributor

In prior years this was an easy choice – Justin Verlander. But with Verlander not available this year, Dusty Baker should go to the other future Hall-of-Famer: Zack Greinke.

For Opening Day, you need a strong showing on the mound to set the tone for the season. Greinke has over 450 career starts, and has experience pitching on Opening Day from his time with Kansas City, Milwaukee and Arizona. Greinke has 6 All-Star appearances, 6 Gold Gloves, 1 Cy Young and over 200 career wins. For a team that has World Series aspirations, that’s the guy you want to set the tone.

Yes, his age is up and his velocity is down, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t dominate the mound. The 36-year-old only posted a 3-3 record last year, but he put forward some quality starts in July and August to help keep a struggling Astros team afloat. He finished the season posting a 9.0 strikeouts-per-nine and a career-low 1.2 walks-per-nine, and did so with inconsistent offensive support all season.

Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers might both have the better pitches and velocity, but none of those guys have even close to the experience to what Zach Greinke has. With opening night at the Oakland Coliseum against the A’s on ESPN, there’s no one else I’d rather have on the mound in the bottom of the first than Greinke.

Dan Sheed, Contributor

In non pandemic years, the obvious choice for the Opening Day starter would be Justin Verlander, case closed. With Verlander being out this year, due to Tommy John surgery; that makes things a little more complicated for the Astros and their young pitching staff.

If I were Dusty Baker, I would choose someone who I would know would get the job done and not get rattled too easily with the pressure of Opening Day. My two picks are Lance McCullers Jr. and Zack Greinke, both are solid pitchers with multiple years of experience and can easily get the job done in my opinion.

Let’s start with Lance McCullers Jr.; McCullers went 3-3 in  last year’s abbreviated season with a 3.93 ERA with 56 strikeouts after missing 2019 with Tommy John surgery. In my opinion, things could have gone a lot worse for McCullers after missing a full year of baseball, so putting those up those kind of numbers is commendable.

My other pick would be Zack Greinke. Greinke had an identical record to McCullers (3-3) but with a slightly higher ERA (4.03). Don’t let that fool you though, Greinke can still get the job done when called upon, whether he tells you what pitch is coming or not. Greinke is also the second oldest pitcher on this staff behind Justin, which is always a plus in my book.

Kenny Van Doren, Site Expert

This will be another unorthodox year for the Astros pitching staff, as there won’t be a recent dominant ace like Verlander, Keuchel or Cole on the roster. One thing holds true; there is a Cy Young winner in the rotation, but I am not rolling with Zack Greinke for Opening Day.

Lance McCuller Jr. is another right-hander in contention, but I feel as if you need to earn this job. The one-time All-Star does hold a special role and former dominance on the staff, but inconsistency and injury have left him in the dust of being my choice.

Looking at the other options, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are both young talents, but this isn’t their stage to shine. You want to make a statement moving forward with your choice of your ace, and for me, I am going with Framber Valdez. The left-hander pitched in his third MLB season in 2020 and solidified a spot on the rotation moving forward.

In 70.2 inning, the left-hander posted a 3.57 ERA, lowest of all three possible choices mentioned, and fanned 76 batters. While relying on three pitches before his fastball, Valdez is a threat to hitter with wicked off speed and movement.

While not having the most experience on staff, Valdez has the poise and confidence to succeed as the ace of a staff. Also, naming him the Opening Day starter can also trigger better outcome from other pitchers such as McCullers Jr., who could see himself as the best pitcher on the staff. Spring Training will be the overall test to see who will hit the bump on April 1, but looking to the future, Valdez has the moxie and pitches to be an All-Star starter for Houston.