CTH Staff: Who will be the Astros Opening Day Starter?

Andrew Gleinser, Contributor

Choosing who should be the Houston Astros starting pitcher on Opening Day is a much more difficult proposition than in years past. There’s no Justin Verlander in the mix, as he’ll miss the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. In his absence there are three perfectly viable choices, neither of whom has a distinct advantage over the others.

Lance McCullers Jr. may have the highest ceiling of the three, and he’s also the longest tenured Astros pitcher of the three. He had an up and down 2020 season coming off Tommy John surgery, but he finished strong to put up a respectable 3.93 ERA in 11 starts. He’s also a free agent after this season, so maybe naming him the Opening Day starter would breed some goodwill between him and the team?

Framber Valdez had the most successful 2020 of the three, as he broke out to a 3.57 ERA in 10 starts and one relief appearance, finishing 11th in the Cy Young voting. He also pitched well in the playoffs, tallying a 3-1 record and 1.88 ERA in three starts and one relief appearance. If we’re going off the “what have you done for me lately” way of thinking, Valdez is the favorite.

Then there’s Zack Greinke, who’s a future Hall of Famer and by far the most accomplished pitcher in this trio. He also had an up and down 2020, pitching to a 4.03 ERA in 12 starts and then a 4.30 ERA in the postseason. But he had a strong 2019 season and certainly has the pedigree to take the mound on Day One.

So who should it be? It may end up depending on how each pitcher looks in Spring Training and how their schedules line up, but if all things are equal, I would probably go Greinke first, then Valdez and McCullers. Greinke has the pedigree, and he showed flashes of brilliance in 2020, so he’s still got it.

Valdez pitched like an ace in 2020, but I’d want to see more than a short season’s worth of that before I push him past Greinke on the depth chart. McCullers can mow people down but was inconsistent last year and in the playoffs, so I’d rather go with the tried and true Greinke to start things out. Although I’m not sure there’s really a wrong answer here.

Matthew Kunkel, Contributor

In prior years this was an easy choice – Justin Verlander. But with Verlander not available this year, Dusty Baker should go to the other future Hall-of-Famer: Zack Greinke.

For Opening Day, you need a strong showing on the mound to set the tone for the season. Greinke has over 450 career starts, and has experience pitching on Opening Day from his time with Kansas City, Milwaukee and Arizona. Greinke has 6 All-Star appearances, 6 Gold Gloves, 1 Cy Young and over 200 career wins. For a team that has World Series aspirations, that’s the guy you want to set the tone.

Yes, his age is up and his velocity is down, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t dominate the mound. The 36-year-old only posted a 3-3 record last year, but he put forward some quality starts in July and August to help keep a struggling Astros team afloat. He finished the season posting a 9.0 strikeouts-per-nine and a career-low 1.2 walks-per-nine, and did so with inconsistent offensive support all season.

Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers might both have the better pitches and velocity, but none of those guys have even close to the experience to what Zach Greinke has. With opening night at the Oakland Coliseum against the A’s on ESPN, there’s no one else I’d rather have on the mound in the bottom of the first than Greinke.

Dan Sheed, Contributor

In non pandemic years, the obvious choice for the Opening Day starter would be Justin Verlander, case closed. With Verlander being out this year, due to Tommy John surgery; that makes things a little more complicated for the Astros and their young pitching staff.

If I were Dusty Baker, I would choose someone who I would know would get the job done and not get rattled too easily with the pressure of Opening Day. My two picks are Lance McCullers Jr. and Zack Greinke, both are solid pitchers with multiple years of experience and can easily get the job done in my opinion.

Let’s start with Lance McCullers Jr.; McCullers went 3-3 in  last year’s abbreviated season with a 3.93 ERA with 56 strikeouts after missing 2019 with Tommy John surgery. In my opinion, things could have gone a lot worse for McCullers after missing a full year of baseball, so putting those up those kind of numbers is commendable.

My other pick would be Zack Greinke. Greinke had an identical record to McCullers (3-3) but with a slightly higher ERA (4.03). Don’t let that fool you though, Greinke can still get the job done when called upon, whether he tells you what pitch is coming or not. Greinke is also the second oldest pitcher on this staff behind Justin, which is always a plus in my book.

Kenny Van Doren, Site Expert

This will be another unorthodox year for the Astros pitching staff, as there won’t be a recent dominant ace like Verlander, Keuchel or Cole on the roster. One thing holds true; there is a Cy Young winner in the rotation, but I am not rolling with Zack Greinke for Opening Day.

Lance McCuller Jr. is another right-hander in contention, but I feel as if you need to earn this job. The one-time All-Star does hold a special role and former dominance on the staff, but inconsistency and injury have left him in the dust of being my choice.

Looking at the other options, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier are both young talents, but this isn’t their stage to shine. You want to make a statement moving forward with your choice of your ace, and for me, I am going with Framber Valdez. The left-hander pitched in his third MLB season in 2020 and solidified a spot on the rotation moving forward.

In 70.2 inning, the left-hander posted a 3.57 ERA, lowest of all three possible choices mentioned, and fanned 76 batters. While relying on three pitches before his fastball, Valdez is a threat to hitter with wicked off speed and movement.

While not having the most experience on staff, Valdez has the poise and confidence to succeed as the ace of a staff. Also, naming him the Opening Day starter can also trigger better outcome from other pitchers such as McCullers Jr., who could see himself as the best pitcher on the staff. Spring Training will be the overall test to see who will hit the bump on April 1, but looking to the future, Valdez has the moxie and pitches to be an All-Star starter for Houston.