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Houston Astros: Nobody to Blame for the 2015 Collapse

By Mike Mitchell |
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Nobody to Blame for the 2015 Collapse

Sep 20, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros mascot Orbit entertains fans during the seventh inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

When I arrived at work on Thursday morning, a co-worker who teaches across the hall immediately popped in:

“It’s over. Our manager just doesn’t know how to handle a bullpen. Sickening.”

This reaction is, of course, human nature. An event happens that causes us some level of emotional distress, and we immediately search for someone to blame. The goal is to transfer the feelings of sadness and/or anger that we do not deserve — I personally did not throw a flat slider to David Freese in the eighth inning Wednesday — onto someone who does. As succinctly as I can define this universal truth of fandom, it goes like this:

I am sad because someone else failed at his job. I now must inform others that [A.J. Hinch], who I have found to be most responsible, is the rightful owner of my sadness. If others agree with me, their acceptance will cause me to become less sad. (By the way, this is extremely related to why some fans can’t stand seeing players smile in the clubhouse during a losing streak. How dare they cause me such misery and not seem to share it?)

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Fans have every right to take pride in the city where they live and want that location to be victorious over other cities where other people live. Feelings of tribalism and community connectedness are not silly; they’re a sign you are not a sociopath.

But that hurt we feel when the local team fails us? Sometimes, we don’t have a case to transfer it to anyone. Sometimes, there’s nobody to blame. This is especially true in baseball, a sport with more randomness and luck involved than any other major sport.

The 2015 Astros are the ultimate case of a collapse without a cause.

On May 4th, the Astros were 18-7. As a result of their early hot streak and a flawed division, they spent the overwhelming majority of the 2015 season in first place, despite the fact they never once made it to even 15 games over .500 following their plus-11 start. They were like a football team that scores a touchdown on its first drive and then punts the rest of the game, starting the fourth quarter up 7-6.

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Next: The Astros are 29-46 on the road.

The Astros are 29-46 on the road.

What went wrong? Why are we sitting here with almost no chance of winning the division? Bad luck. That is it. Pure luck. None of the targets of blame holds up to scrutiny. Let’s review:

The Astros are 29-46 on the road. The Astros have outscored their opponents on the road.

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This is borderline-impossible to pull off. Houston is a full 10 games worse on the road than they should be based on their run differential. They have been swept this year by several bad teams. There is zero evidence that a gap this large between a team’s expected record and its actual record can be explained by the team’s clutch performance or any other factors related to the team. It’s simply an inefficient clustering of hits and runs. Luck. With even five more wins on the road, half the difference between their expected road record and their actual record, the Astros are in first place looking to finish off the Rangers this weekend.

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Next: Jeff Luhnow acted aggressively

Jeff Luhnow acted aggressively.

May 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow waves to the crowd before a game against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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Jeff Luhnow acted aggressively. This team was not left short-handed by its management. After the hot start, Luhnow recalled Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez to upgrade a shaky rotation. Both of those decisions were smart moves. He acquired more starting pitching (Scott Kazmir, Mike Fiers), a two-way center fielder in his prime (Carlos Gomez) and a veteran lefty specialist (Oliver Perez) to patch the roster, and gave up a significant haul of future assets in the process.

All of those players had track records suggesting they would be highly useful. Kazmir has largely not worked out, and Gomez had a rough first three weeks before he began to heat up. Fiers has been as-advertised. If anything, one can criticize Luhnow for giving up too much future value to win in 2015 I did so but that has nothing to do with why the team is falling apart now. He went for it on guys who should have produced. Nobody can accuse Kazmir and Gomez of not trying hard.

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Next: A.J. Hinch has made very few mistakes.

A.J. Hinch has made very few mistakes.

Jul 6, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch (14) points to the bullpen during a pitching change in the seventh inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY SporA.J. Hinch has made very few mistakes.

Why is the bullpen collapsing? Is it because Hinch is not putting them in the position to succeed? Hardly. Throughout the season, Hinch avoided short-term thinking, refusing to tax his bullpen as a whole, or use each reliever on consecutive days. This team was managed with September and October in mind. If the pitchers are tired, their fatigue was not preventable.

As far as usage, the Astros have a clear pecking order:

  • Will Harris and Luke Gregerson have been the top relief pitchers on the team.
  • Pat Neshek is best used as a righty specialist, as he has a clear platoon split, with RHB at .184/.245/.314 vs. Neshek career.
  • Oliver Perez is best used as a lefty specialist, as he has a clear platoon split, with LHP at .231/.318/.365 vs. Perez career.
  • Josh Fields and Velasquez (strikeouts), Chad Qualls (grounders) and Tony Sipp (multi-inning lefty) have situational value when the primary options are not realistically available.

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Hinch has adhered to this, even in tight spots. Most recently, he allowed Harris to face Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and David Murphy to open the eighth inning on Wednesday. Replacing him with Neshek for a series of lesser righties who seemed especially susceptible to the platoon advantage Neshek has against RHBs. Harris could not put Trout away after two strikes, he is the best player on planet earth, and later Neshek gave up a fly ball that kept carrying to David Freese. Just like that, the game was lost. That’s baseball.

On offense, Hinch has pinch-hit aggressively to gain a platoon advantage, using 40-man pieces like Jonathan Villar, Matt Duffy, Max Stassi and others in exactly the roles that would maximize the team’s chances in the later innings.

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Next: Fans Want Answers

Fans want Answers.

Aug 31, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Fans celebrate after Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (not pictured) makes a fielding play against the Seattle Mariners in the second inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, fans like narratives. And so we get takes suggesting Hinch just isn’t tough enough. He’s over his head because blah blah Arizona blah blah something-something. And our players don’t have enough grit! They’re soft! Inexperienced!

Tell that to the 2007 Colorado Rockies, 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, 2010 Texas Rangers and 2014 Kansas City Royals: four pennant winners from the past eight seasons that had no previous history of even competing for the playoffs, let alone making it.

Inexperience is not an issue in baseball, because more than any other sport, baseball is dictated by a mix of statistical probabilities and random chance. The best football teams win more than 80% of their games. The best baseball teams often struggle to win 60%.

The Astros had outscored their opponents by more than 100 runs through the end of August. What if they really weren’t that good? What if they were simply due for some regression, while the Rangers, who had been outscored up to that point, were due to regress in the opposite direction? This would be the result of that, and it would look like one team choking and one team rising to the occasion. But it would just be the reality of the rosters playing out in front of us, three hours at a time.

In other words, what if all these outcomes have nothing to do with heroes and goats?

It’s a deeply unsatisfying way for the casual fan to look at sports and why some believe the avalanche of advanced statistics in baseball is hurting the sports appeal to blue collar fans and the talk radio crowd, but it just may be the truth.

Baseball isn’t about narratives.

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Next: Could the 2015 Houston Astros be like the 2005 Chicago White Sox?

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