Houston Astros: Nobody to Blame for the 2015 Collapse

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The Astros are 29-46 on the road.

What went wrong? Why are we sitting here with almost no chance of winning the division? Bad luck. That is it. Pure luck. None of the targets of blame holds up to scrutiny. Let’s review:

The Astros are 29-46 on the road. The Astros have outscored their opponents on the road.

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This is borderline-impossible to pull off. Houston is a full 10 games worse on the road than they should be based on their run differential. They have been swept this year by several bad teams. There is zero evidence that a gap this large between a team’s expected record and its actual record can be explained by the team’s clutch performance or any other factors related to the team. It’s simply an inefficient clustering of hits and runs. Luck. With even five more wins on the road, half the difference between their expected road record and their actual record, the Astros are in first place looking to finish off the Rangers this weekend.

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