Houston Astros: Plugging in the Astros first base/DH Holes

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Houston, we have a problem at first and DH

Aug 20, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Evan Gattis (11) flips his bat after striking out during the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

A generation ago, during the overlapping Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman eras of the 90s and 2000s, baseball experienced an offensive surge. Finding a large, perhaps chemically enhanced gentleman to hit 25 or 30 HRs and get on base was not difficult. In 2003, the league-wide OPS was .755, and those on the less important end of the defensive spectrum (DH, 1B, LF) had an average OPS hovering around .800. For comparison’s sake, Carlos Correa is the only 2015 Astro with an OPS over .800.

Today, things are different. Pitching is back in control, near its late 80’s and early 90’s advantage. The days of being able to find affordable production at the corners – guys like Brian Daubach and John Jaha – have been replaced by an abundant availability of acceptable, keep-you-in-the-game starting pitching on the cheap – guys like Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers.

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Even by the new standards of offensive scarcity, however, the Astros work in 2015 at first base and DH is completely inexcusable. The team has received 4.0 Wins Above Replacement more than the average team should expect at second base and shortstop – the most combined middle infield WAR in the league. They have given every bit of it back at first base and DH, where they have exactly 4.0 WAR less than the average team. They’ve been that bad.

According to FanGraphs, Evan Gattis has been worth negative-0.4 WAR. He’s been worse than a hypothetical nondescript player who could have DH’d from Triple-A, and (as we’ll see) much worse than our actual internal replacement options. Chris Carter has been right there with him, providing negative-0.3 WAR, mostly at first base.

(And please, let’s all avoid the “Gattis has lots of the RBIs!” argument. Any carbon life form batting directly behind Altuve, Springer, and Correa most of the season would have 70+ RBIs. A decent hitter with so-so luck would have 90. Gattis seems like a truly great guy, and a team player, but that doesn’t make his RBI total any more relevant.)

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Next: Potential Lineup

Potential lineup

Sep 7, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) rounds the bases on a three run home run against the Oakland Athletics during the seventh inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

So what do the Astros do, both for the rest of 2015 and the 2016 season? We will look at seven options to fill those two spots: Carter, Gattis, Jon Singleton, A.J. Reed, Luis Valbuena, Tyler White and Matt Duffy.

First, I would offer that next year’s batting order is likely to look something like this:

2B Altuve (R)

RF Springer (R)

SS Correa (R)

1B/DH To Be Named

CF Gomez (R)

DH/1B To Be Named

LF Tucker (L)/Marisnick (R)

3B Lowrie (S)

C Castro (L)

Part of the problem with the Astros has been that their top four bats (Altuve, Springer, Correa, and Gomez) are all right-handed. This order has consistently allowed teams to match up hard-throwing right-handed relievers against the top of our lineup for full innings without paying the penalty of an opposite hand matchup. A left-handed hitter who can break up the top four – perhaps with Springer or Altuve moving down to cleanup, and Gomez fifth – would be useful.

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Next: Option 1: Chris Carter

Option 1: Chris Carter

Aug 11, 2015; San Francisco, CA; Houston Astros first baseman Chris Carter (23) hits an RBI single against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at AT&T Park. Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

1. Chris Carter

2016 AGE: 29

2016 SALARY: Arbitration-Eligible (Made $4.18M in 2015); Under Team Control Through 2018

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For me, it is not personal with Carter. He seems to be an upstanding citizen, well-liked in the clubhouse. I have no doubt he’s worked hard to try to overcome his struggles during a horrendous 2015 season. The character attacks and near-universal scorn from otherwise-patient fans have gotten tiresome. Carter has struggled, and should not be brought back. Let’s just leave it at that.

(As a small point in his favor, he is at least willing to work a walk as part of his overall hitting approach, which puts him ahead of several others on the team, most notably Gattis).

For the rest of 2015, I have no problem with Carter playing against left-handed pitching, against whom he has a semi-useful .717 OPS this year. Beyond that, Carter would be due between $4.5M and $5M in arbitration. He has no trade value, and the money is better spent elsewhere. He’ll be non-tendered.

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Next: Option 2: Evan Gattis

Option 2: Evan Gattis

Jul 23, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Evan Gattis (11) hits an RBI single during the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

2. Evan Gattis

2016 AGE: 29

2016 SALARY: Arbitration-Eligible (Made Minimum in 2015); Under Team Control Through 2018

25 HR! 83 RBI! Nine triples! A blue collar attitude AND a beard! What else could you want?

Look, Gattis has been no better than Carter. I know, hot take alert. It is very hard to provide zero defensive value, be a slow baserunner with poor instincts, post a .280 on-base percentage, and be valuable. All of the underlying variables are equally troubling: Gattis’s hard-contact rate has dropped from 38.7% with the Braves last year to 31.5%. He is hitting more infield pop-ups and more ground balls than ever.

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And as for those RBIs? Gattis has hit .230/.256/.494 in close and late situations, similar to his overall batting line. He’s simply had more opportunities to drive in runs (151 PAs with runners in scoring position) than most hitters, and that’s why nobody cares about RBIs anymore.

Gattis’s undisciplined right-handed power is an especially poor fit for our lineup. Which already has its share of high-strikeout and free-swinging right-handed hitters, all of whom offer far more defensive and base running value than Gattis. He may have a bit of trade value if they can find a lefty-heavy, low-power team with a need at DH (Cleveland?).They will not receive a package consistent with what they spent to acquire him from Atlanta.

Bringing Gattis back for his likely arbitration salary of around $5M would be ill-advised unless recent adjustments begin to bear fruit.

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Next: Option 3: Jon Singleton

Option 3: Jon Singleton

Aug 17, 2014; Boston, MA; Houston Astros first baseman Jon Singleton (28) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Boston Red Sox during the ninth inning at Fenway Park. The Astros defeated the Red Sox 8-1. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

3. Jon Singleton

2016 AGE: 24

2016 SALARY: $2M (Signed Through 2018 with Team Options for 2019-2021)

Another lightning rod among the fans, Singleton went down to Fresno out of spring training after a miserable .168/.285/.335 showing across a 95-game rookie season in 2014. Early last season, he was signed to a controversial long-term contract immediately before being recalled, one that was discussed primarily because Singleton took very little guaranteed money ($10M) in exchange for a low baseline of security long-term. The Astros now have six more seasons of control of Singleton, with affordable options through his first year of free-agent eligibility (though now that may work out to be his final year of arbitration after he accumulated very little service time in 2015).

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Singleton has mashed in Triple-A. Mashed. His difficulty with lefties kept his overall 2015 line out of the stratosphere, but he hit .293/.414/.602 in 314 plate appearances vs. RHP. His BB/K of 55/62 also suggests stellar control of the strike zone against opposite-hand pitching.

In a brief stint with the big club, Singleton hit .205/.321/.318 across 53 plate appearances. Hinch seemed reluctant to use him and often hit him eighth in the order when he did. After the Gomez trade, Singleton went to Triple-A and Carter spent August on the bench.

If you believe that those Triple-A numbers have any merit, you have to believe Singleton to be the best 1B/DH option vs. RHP on the current 40-man roster. I subscribe to this notion and am consistently frustrated that he’s been buried. Beyond the team’s current malaise offensively, my fear is Singleton will be shipped out in the off-season as a “change of scenery” guy, only to emerge as a consistent 30 HR player with .350+ on-base percentages for someone else. As a mid-payroll team at best, the Astros need to keep their homegrown talent producing at home throughout their 20s (Domingo Santana is killing it in Milwaukee if anybody has noticed).

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My recommendations would be as follows: Singleton and Reed both on the team as the starting 1B and DH, with Reed missing the first dozen games for team control purposes. Non-tender or trade Carter, Gattis and Valbuena, clearing $15M+ in projected salary off the books. Keep White or Duffy to spell alternately Singleton and Reed vs. lefties and back up Lowrie at third.

In a way, the Astros in-progress collapse may be aiding this desired outcome long-term. I would much rather win the division outright, but an optimal 2015 team result may lead to complacency and a decision to return with Gattis and Valbuena, with the team overlooking the fact that correlation does not imply causation. Luhnow is a logical fellow, but the same people who keep trotting Gattis out there as we speak – and keeping Singleton in Fresno – are the ones who will decide the 2016 roster.

Gattis, Carter, and Valbuena are part of the problem, and we have solutions. Let the kids play.

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Next: A Look at The 2015 PITCHf/x for the Houston Astros

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Houston, we have a problem at first and DH

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