Aug 2, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of a Houston Astros hat and glove in the dugout during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Astros #4 Top Prospect: Vincent Velasquez
Vincent Velasquez was already on the map, but a good showing in Arizona Fall ball, got his name noticed more as an Astros top tier prospect. He has already had Tommy John surgery, but struck out 91 hitters in only 64 innings between Rookie ball and Single-A in 2014. He has the presence of an ace already.
Let’s compare his possible first full year in 2017 to Johnny Cueto, who has also had injury issues.
9-14/ 4.81 ERA / 174 innings/ 158 strikeouts
According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact: Velasquez has the ceiling of a top 40 starting pitching in fantasy. His stuff will miss bats and a strikeout per inning is a reasonable ceiling. He does pitch up in the zone and home runs could become a problem for him. Overall, I think you should expect 180 innings, 160 to 190 strikeouts with better than league average ratios. However, given his injury history, you need to add a high risk to the ceiling.
Ceiling: Johnny Cueto
Floor: Edinson Volquez
Next: Michael Foltynewicz