Yordan Alvarez’s MVP push with Astros is facing surprising competition from a rookie

Remember how the national media snubbed Yordan Alvarez and left him off the list of 10-best hitters coming into the 2026 season. No one will underestimate the Houston Astros slugger again. Alvarez is the best hitter in the major leagues by wRC+ by a wide margin. His 186 mark is tops and is 20 points ahead of both Ben Rice and James Wood, who both come in at 166. His 31 homers at the All-Star break are also tops in the American League.

Yordan has been so good that it's hard to imagine that there's any room for him to be better, except that the expected stats show he's actually been slightly unlucky this year. His .439 wOBA pales in comparison to his astronomical .476 xwOBA.

Alvarez's offensive onslaught has produced 4.4 fWAR to date, placing second in the American League after Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr's 4.8 mark. Witt Jr. is a formidable opponent in Alvarez's quest for his first MVP award, as the Royals superstar has two straight top-five MVP finishes under his belt and another seventh-place finish in 2023.

But Witt Jr. isn't the only prime contender for the MVP hardware. Nipping at Alvarez's heels is Detroit Tigers rookie phenom Kevin McGonigle, coming in with a cool 4.0 fWAR.

Astros star Yordan Alvarez will have to fight off a historic run from Tigers rookie Kevin McGonigle in the AL MVP race

Detroit's youngster turns 22 in August and has split time almost evenly between shortstop and third base. The youngster has incredible poise at the plate, walking more than he strikes out at a 60-to-56 ratio en route to a .283/.392/.420 line with eight homers.

The offensive line is good, but not great, paling in comparison to the .318/.426/.633 line Houston's superstar has authored. With that said, the penalty designated hitters face with regard to valuation both in WAR and in MVP voting is steep.

In fact, there's only one player ever to win the MVP in either league as a primary designated hitter, Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani also pitched to some extent in three of his four MVP campaigns, meaning that if Alvarez takes home the honor, he'll be the first non-two-way player DH to win the trophy.

McGonigle may also enter the history books if he's able to fend off Alvarez and Witt Jr. in the race. He's the hands-down AL Rookie of the Year favorite, meaning if he takes home that award plus the MVP, he'd be just the third player in history to capture both awards in the same season, joining Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.

So while Aaron Judge's injury seemed to clear the way for Alvarez to take home MVP glory, it's not that simple. One would have to assume that if the status quo continues for this trio of candidates in the second half, Witt Jr. would have the edge. With that said, you can't sleep on Alvarez, and he shouldn't sleep on McGonigle either.

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