Astros star Yordan Alvarez's biggest MVP question mark just hit his biggest rival

One of the most frustrating narratives heading into 2026 for Houston Astros fans is how many folks on the national scene forgot just how good Yordan Alvarez is after his injury-plagued 2025 campaign. For years, Alvarez has been shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto as the clear top-tier hitters in the game. At 29 years old, it was ridiculous to think that the Cuban slugger had fallen off.

Alvarez has very loudly reminded everyone that he's still prominently featured on today's Mount Rushmore of great sluggers, and might be authoring his best season to date. Reaching 20 homers with a 1.000 OPS within the Astros first 60 games has only been done three times, twice by Alvarez in 2019 and again this season. The only other player to join that club was Houston legend Jeff Bagwell in 1999.

The 2026 version of Alvarez is the fastest in franchise history to reach the 20-homer plateau, and he's on pace to annihilate his career high of 37 dingers from back in 2022. More than just homers, Alvarez is a complete hitter. He's batting .301 on the year and owns a .297 batting average. His plate discipline is second-to-none with a 12.3% walk rate and a superior 19.6% strikeout rate for his career.

The stellar start has MVP whispers growing louder around Alvarez, but after winning three of the last four AL MVP awards, Judge had to be considered the biggest challenger to Alvarez. Sure, the Yankees star hasn't gotten off to the same start that he normally has, but he's still been plenty good and has earned that respect, no matter how begrudgingly it comes from our side.

Astros insider Chandler Rome points out that the biggest non-human potential obstacle in his path is injury, especially after the back spasms that temporarily sidelined him earlier in May.

Astros star Yordan Alvarez's top challenger for AL MVP, Aaron Judge, may have fallen into the injury trap he avoided

It was a scary moment when Alvarez was removed from the May 23 matchup against the Cubs. Fortunately, it only cost the Astros' superstar one game, and on May 25, he was back in the lineup and going yard against the rival Texas Rangers.

The Yankees might not be as lucky with Judge, who is now being held out of the lineup for a second straight day with a bone bruise on his ribs that has sent pain radiating all the way up through his shoulder. Just as there's still some underlying concern that Alvarez's back will flare up again, there's a chance Judge's injury lingers for a while, even if New York says otherwise.

The DH spot has long been a handicap to winning the MVP award, as no one had done it while primarily manning the DH spot until Shohei Ohtani. In order to keep Alvarez healthy, a steady diet of DH work is necessary, and now with Judge's uncertainty, this also might not be as damaging to the Houston star's MVP candidacy.

Through his first 60 games, Alvarez has only appeared in left field in nine contests so far this year. The Astros would be wise to make sure that is the extent of his outfield adventures this year. The more he rakes, the better his chances are of being honored with the award at the end of the year. However, the more he plays in the outfield, the greater the chances are that his back flares up and costs him time, damaging the Astros' playoff chances in the process.

It's too early to say that Alvarez's biggest challenger for MVP glory has been taken down, but it's hard not to note the irony in that the biggest obstacle in his path is what could potentially clear the way for him to emerge victorious should Judge's injury hold him down long term. Baseball is funny that way sometimes.

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