What Alex Bregman’s likely qualifying offer choice does and doesn’t mean for Astros

By Tuesday, Nov. 19 at 4 PM EST, all players that received qualifying offers from their 2024 teams will have to have decided to accept or reject those offers. For the Houston Astros, there is little drama ahead of the qualifying offer deadline, as it is a mortal lock that Alex Bregman will reject the QO and become a free agent.

This isn't surprising whatsoever. Bregman was widely expected to decline the qualifying offer from Houston before it was even extended to him. However, the qualifying offer is one of the more arcane processes in the sport of baseball, and the mere act of extending the qualifying offer to him could have wide reaching impacts - both for the Astros as well as Bregman, this offseason and beyond.

What is the qualifying offer and how will it affect the Astros and Alex Bregman?

The MLB qualifying offer was established as a competitive balance measure to compensate teams for losing high profile free agents and keep the big market teams from buying up all the top guys with impunity. The gist of it is that teams can extend a qualifying offer (valued at $21.05 million this year) to any pending free agent, as long as they haven't previously received a QO or were traded during the season, within five days of the end of the World Series. Then, any players that receive those offers have two weeks to accept or reject them.

This brings us to the Alex Bregman discussion. If a miracle happens and Bregman accepts Houston's qualifying offer, he would essentially be signing a one-year deal, would become a free agent after the 2025 season and could not be given the QO next year. The odds of this happening are probably less than 1%, but we'll throw that out there for giggles.

In the extremely probable event that Bregman rejects the qualifying offer, what matters is whether or not he ends up back in Houston. For the moment, Bregman remains the Astros' top priority, and owner Jim Crane updated everyone on Monday that those negotiations are ongoing, although there is nothing new to report. If Bregman returns, nothing changes beyond Bregman returning, which would be pretty sweet.

If Bregman signs elsewhere, the Astros would receive a draft pick in the 2025 draft after the fourth round, given their status as payers of the competitive balance tax (also known as the luxury tax) this past season. Teams that receive revenue-sharing money and/or who don't pay the luxury tax receive higher picks if they lose a QO'd player. Bregman's new team would lose a draft pick for signing him, but exactly which pick(s) they would lose would depend on their luxury tax and revenue-sharing status, as well as how many free agents with qualifying offers attached they have signed in addition to Bregman.

The long and short of it is that if Bregman stays, the qualifying offer doesn't matter. However, other teams are certainly going to have to price in the draft pick loss that signing Bregman would bring, which gives Houston a slight advantage over other teams, as they don't have to worry about that. If Bregman leaves, the Astros will get a draft pick, which is nice, but they will also have to figure out how to replace Bregman's production in the short term.

Ultimately, the choice is clear. You want him back.

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