Top Astros pitching prospect is one adjustment away from getting shot at majors again

The Houston Astros have a major problem and not much in the way of resources to address it. With Framber Valdez likely gone in free agency, name a reliable Astros starter not named Hunter Brown. It's a tough one, right?

Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski both went down with season-ending injuries and their return timelines are currently unclear. Luis Garcia will have his 2026 campaign wiped out as well after what was a very short-lived return. Even depth arms like Brandon Walter are a no-go.

That means that Brown, as the roster is currently constructed, will be flanked by Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti, and, um, maybe Jason Alexander? Javier might have some upside as he's now another year removed from his own Tommy John surgery, but McCullers Jr. can't be trusted, Arrighetti has now logged 180.1 big league innings with a 4.69 career ERA, and Alexander is a 32-year-old who was claimed off waivers from the pitching-needy Athletics in May. Uninspiring doesn't begin to describe this group.

But one top prospect, AJ Blubaugh, could emerge and provide a major boost to a unit that could really use one. He'll just have to fix his own fatal flaw first.

Astros top pitching prospect AJ Blubaugh could have a real shot at a rotation spot if he can overcome his walks issue

It was a tale of two seasons for 25-year-old AJ Blubaugh in many ways. Blubaugh made his big league debut on April 30, and while he struck out six Detroit Tigers over four frames, he allowed seven runs, though only two were earned.

After the start, the rookie right-hander would be optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land and wouldn't resurface again until August 5. That would again be a one-and-done appearance as he'd be sent back down for another few weeks before getting the call again on August 23 and holding on the a big league roster spot through the end of the regular season.

While at Sugar Land, the promising youngster struggled badly. He'd make 22 appearances (19 starts) and log 99 innings while posting a 5.27 ERA. His biggest bugaboo? The free pass, handing out 5.27 BB/9.

However, in Houston, his fortunes were much different. So too was his role. Blubaugh would only make three big league starts, but he'd have eight other appearances and toss 32 innings in total. With that came an electric 1.69 ERA and put him in the conversation of nabbing a spot on the postseason roster as a reliever, though the Astros' collapse would ensure that didn't come to pass.

Contrary to what you might think, a driving force behind Blubaugh's success was improved command against tougher major league hitters. The youngster reduced his BB/9 to a manageable 3.09, while striking out more hitters, posting a 9.84 K/9. A 30.4% chase rate and 30% whiff rate showed that he can fool big league hitters and command the zone well enough to make competitive pitches both in and out of the zone.

The question now is, can he keep it up? Houston will surely add an arm, maybe two, to the rotation this offseason, but a strong spring training showing should have Blubaugh in line to earn a spot as a starter, too. That is, as long as he can prove that his 32-inning big league sample should hold more weight than his much larger Triple-A body of work. For Houston's sake, they better hope that's the case.