Timing may be only thing saving Dana Brown Astros tenure right now

After last year's playoff-less season in Houston — the first since 2016 — many thought that Astros GM Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada might have been let go in the offseason. Both men, being under contract for 2026, saved their jobs. The only thing Astros' owner Jim Crane hates more than losing is wasting money, and he was never going to pay Brown and Espada to not run his team.

Now with the Astros spiraling, the seats, especially Brown's, are starting to heat up. The team's offseason acquisitions, like Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai, were supposed to help right the ship.

Houston's starting rotation still owns a league-worst ERA. Burrows has struggled mightily, and Imai has struggled to adapt to the U.S. both on and off the mound before hitting the IL. The longer these players struggle, the more they'll push Brown closer to the edge.

Brown will take the blame, but Crane's budgetary restrictions didn't give him the option to pursue more secure, veteran options to bolster the group of starters. It feels like the walls might be closing in, but there are reasons why an in-season move against Brown's job doesn't make sense... for now.

The MLB Draft could give Astros GM Dana Brown a chance to save his job

The MLB Draft isn't until July 11, but the work is underway. In fact, the scouting and big-board building has been in the works for a good long while.

Ditching Brown now would also be throwing out all of the work that he and his staff have already done to prepare for the draft. Hiring a new general manager would mean starting the process from scratch. Even if Crane tagged one of Brown's assistants: Charles Cook, Gavin Dickey, or Connor Huff, as the interim front-office leader, he'd do more damage than he'd fix.

In that scenario, the most likely situation would be that the big board and draft strategy would be largely unchanged, but any prospects who were already on the fence about signing could be scared off by the uncertainty.

The draft is critical for the Astros. The farm system is barren, and while there are some intriguing pieces from the last two classes, much more is needed. Damaging their chances to add to the pipeline makes little sense.

From that point, the trade deadline would only be a couple of weeks away, making it yet another inopportune time to dismiss Brown. Once the calendar rolls to August, Crane might be best served just waiting until his GM's contract expires at season's end.

That will buy Brown time. The Astros are 10-16 so far. They started the 2024 season 12-24, but went on to finish 88-73 and win the AL West. That's still possible for them, even if it seems unlikely.

Timing buys Brown the season, but if history repeats itself, he could live to fight another day in 2027 with a new contract in hand. Of course, that might prolong the rebuild even further and put the club even further behind the eight-ball with regard to the future. It's a tough situation, but firing the general manager in-season would make it even tougher.

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