Dana Brown will shoulder blame for Astros’ pitching staff woes, but it's not all on him

The Houston Astros went with a quantity over quality approach to fill their starting rotation this offseason, and unsurprisingly, are paying the price. There's been some really bad luck with untimely injuries to Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Tatsuya Imai, but the performance from the guys who have been around, and that injured trio (with the exception of Brown), has left a lot to be desired. General manager Dana Brown looks to be on the hook, and with his contract expiring at season's end, he could be in trouble.

Brown certainly didn't choose wisely, for sure, but he didn't have the most expansive menu. Astros beat writer Chandler Rome broke it down perfectly in his column for The Athletic (subscription required) by pointing out the influence that Jim Crane had over the transactions.

"Working for an owner who has never guaranteed a pitcher more than $95 million — and with one of the sport’s most fallow farm systems — somewhat limited the pool of realistic targets in Brown’s offseason pursuit," Rome wrote. He's not wrong.

Crane has always loathed crossing the luxury tax line, and this winter was no exception. Given where Houston started, there wasn't much he could do aside from take fliers on reclamation projects and dart throws on unknowns. His lone big swing, Imai, cost $54 million ($63 million with incentives), represented much higher upside than a comparably priced MLB veteran, but with that came a much lower floor.

Dana Brown is being set up as an Astros' scapegoat, but he also helped make his own bed

Crane may have never greenlit a pitcher contract over $95 million, but even if he wanted to go above and beyond for someone like Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, or old friend Framber Valdez, there would have been no way to fit the contract required to land one of those fish under the tax threshold.

This is where Brown has some responsibility. He's been running the show since 2023 and has accumulated some of the worst contracts in baseball. Christian Walker might be turning it around, Carlos Correa might still be productive, and the club can't wait to get a healthy Josh Hader back, but there were more efficient ways to plug the holes that Brown turned to these guys to plug.

Crane tied Brown's hands, but Brown handed him the rope, setting the scene for a major disappointment. Astros pitching has been bad and is only getting worse as the injuries set in, threatening the team's postseason chances and Brown's ability to stay at the helm when 2026 is all said and done.

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