Astros’ spring training rotation competition highlights profound starting pitching uncertainty

There will be a handful of battles for roles on the Houston Astros roster this spring, but none has more importance to the club than the contest for the multiple spots up for grabs in the starting rotation. The field of competitors is enormous as well.

Despite the emergence of Hunter Brown as a true ace and Framber Valdez turning in yet another superb season, the rotation was an issue for Houston. The unit ranked 14th in ERA, in large part because of the revolving door we saw after the top two. Injuries played a role, and the club saw 15 different hurlers log at least one start. Of the 13 behind Brown and Valdez, only five had ERAs under 4, including Luis Garcia and Brandon Walter. Garcia is no longer with the club, but both pitchers suffered elbow injuries that will keep them out for the entirety of the 2026 season.

Valdez is now a Tiger, and it was a foregone conclusion that the Astros wouldn't be able to afford to keep him in Houston. Entering the offseason, the club needed to find a running mate for Brown at the top of the rotation, but also needed to improve upon the depth through the middle and back end. To accomplish that goal, they've brought in a host of arms, but that's kind of the problem.

Sheer number of candidates for the Astros' open rotation spots highlights how they haven't done enough

First, we have to acknowledge that the Astros amped up the difficulty level by preparing to use a six-man rotation. While fifth starter battles are common, adding a sixth to the mix means Houston has yet another hole to fill (at the expense of a bullpen arm), but the two final spots aren't the only ones unsettled.

There are questions about everyone who is in the conversation aside from Brown. The easy way to look at it is who will get first crack at a guaranteed rotation spot. Those pitchers would be Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, and Mike Burrows. Imai and Javier are likely penciled in because of the money they're getting paid, while Burrows was a costly acquisition in terms of the prospects Houston had to part with in order to snag him from the Pirates.

And there's upside in this group. Imai has an electric fastball, but is completely unproven in the States. Javier is the wild card and could be the true No. 2 based on his past track record and being another year removed from Tommy John. Burrows doesn't have a ton of experience, and his showing so far has just been okay, but he has a former top prospect pedigree.

There are downsides to all of the non-Brown locks as well, and then when we move into the next tier, things start to get really wild. Lance McCullers Jr. likely gets first crack thanks to his salary; his showing last year makes him tough to bet on for both performance and health reasons.

Nate Pearson is a pure dart throw as a former first-round pick and busted top prospect. Ryan Weiss is a pure shot in the dark as a guy who couldn't break through to the majors, but reinvented himself in Korea. Spencer Arrighetti and AJ Blubaugh are homegrown arms who are heavy on potential and light on actual performance.

There's something to be said for having depth, but one has to wonder if the Astros wouldn't have been better off consolidating some of these assets for one or two more sure things. The way things are now, there are a bunch of high-ceiling, low-floor options with a variety of question marks ranging from talent to adaptability to health.

The sheer number of competitors shows that, unless the Astros get very lucky, they didn't do anywhere near enough to address their rotation concerns, and that extends far beyond the No. 2 starter role.