Tigers learning the harsh Framber Valdez truth Astros already knew

When the Detroit Tigers signed former Houston Astros ace Framber Valdez, it wasn’t any run-of-the-mill free agent deal. They gave him the highest AAV ever given to a lefty in free agency. They made him the next ace of the team when Tarik Skubal ultimately leaves. And the national media crowned them the best one-two punch in baseball, which was fair. On paper, it was perfect for them. 

But the Astros know better than anyone how risky that deal was, both for his pitching and his antics. And now Astros fans are sitting back, using the Michael Jackson eating popcorn gif as often as possible whenever there’s a story about him. 

Before you get to anything else, the numbers themselves aren’t pretty. He has a 4.40 ERA through 14 starts, and the Tigers have lost seven of his last eight outings. For $38.3 million per year and a floor-raiser next to Skubal, that’s not the deal the Tigers expected. 

Beyond that, though, the profile might be breaking. He’s built his entire career on keeping the ball on the ground with a career 60.9 percent groundball rate that was 58.6 percent last year. This year, it’s 49.6 percent. His fly ball rate has predictably followed suit and jumped from 22.8 percent last year to 32.1 percent this year. Where do fly balls go sometimes? Yep, over the wall. And that’s especially true with diminished stuff, which is pretty obvious when you look at the strikeout rate that has dipped to just 17.9 percent.  

Houston has lived through this. While Valdez was incredibly valuable to the Astros last season, it wasn’t without issues. He led the team in wins, innings, and his ERA of 3.66 looks solid in a vacuum. But the shape of how he got there makes a difference. He had a 2.62 ERA through July and had a 1.84 ERA in a 14-start stretch from May 7 through July 28. The Astros went 13-1 in those games. But the end was ugly. He put up a 6.05 ERA in his final 10 starts with 46 strikeouts, 24 walks, and 66 hits allowed in 58 innings. When he fades, he fades hard. 

The talent is real, but so is the volatility. He’s a two-time All Star, who has gotten Cy Young and MVP votes and has thrown a no-hitter. When he’s good, he’s still really good. But when he’s bad, it’s pretty gully, and that’s a lot to spend that kind of money on.

But beyond the performance, there's the temper. He faced the Red Sox on May 5 and gave up back-to-back home runs to Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu. On the first pitch of the next at bat, he drilled Trevor Story. The benches cleared, Valdez was thrown out, and it capped a night that saw him give up 10 runs in just three innings of work. The league didn’t buy it when he claimed the ball just got away from him, and he was suspended for six games (that was later reduced to five on an appeal). He even earned AJ Hinch a one-game suspension. Chad Tracy, Boston’s interim manager, called the whole situation weak and said that everyone there knew exactly what had happened.

That probably gave Astros fans some warm, fuzzy feelings about the Valdez days. Nobody reading this likely needs a reminder of what happened with the Cesar Salazar incident last year, but if you do, don’t forget that he drilled Salazar in the chest with a sinker one pitch after ignoring the catcher’s request to step off the mound. He and his agent said it was just an innocent cross-up. 

Framber Valdez is no longer the Astros' problem

Teammates reportedly confronted him about it, and coaches had to step in. And then he didn’t even break his silence on it until the offseason. That’s two incidents with two teams and the same fingerprints. It’s part of why the Astros were at peace with letting him walk.

The Astros gave Valdez a qualifying offer, but he was never going to accept it, so there was no real risk there. They knew what kind of talent was leaving the team, but it wasn’t just as simple as what you see on paper. It got to the point that league executives couldn’t even agree on whether losing him was a disaster or a blessing. He was on both “most irreplaceable subtraction” lists and “best subtraction” lists. That split is the player in a nutshell. 

It looks like Valdez will take the mound in Houston against the Astros when the Tigers come to town. Nobody knows which Valdez will show up, but that’s half the fun with a pitcher like him. It might be more fun from the other side, though.

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