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The Houston Astros have suddenly found themselves in a dog fight to get back to the MLB Postseason for a ninth straight season. Joe Espada's club has held onto the AL West lead throughout most of 2025, but with just a few weeks left, the Astros may now have to rely on playoff tiebreakers in order to play baseball into October.
As of September 11, Houston holds a one game advantage over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West and lead the Texas Rangers by just 2½ games in the division. The Astros have also dropped six of their last 10 games heading into Thursday's game against the Toronto Blue Jays, while the Mariners and Rangers are riding five and four game winning streaks, respectively.
Once the Astros wrap up their series with the Jays, they'll head to Atlanta for a three-game series against the Braves before returning to Houston for their final homestand of the season. Their opponents just so happen to be the exact two teams who are chasing them down. The playoff tiebreakers could very well decide who'll go to the postseason and who'll be staying home this October.
Tiebreaker chaos looms large with Astros set to face the Rangers and Mariners during their upcoming homestand
The first tiebreaker scenario is the easiest to understand. If there's a tie between two teams, head-to-head record determines the winner. Houston is currently 5-5 against Seattle and 4-6 against Texas. In other words, the Astros have zero margin for error during the upcoming homestand and in order to maintain the tiebreaker over both teams, they must win both series against the Mariners and Rangers. Winning the tiebreaker over Texas is particularly tricky as Houston must sweep that series to hold the head-to-head advantage.
This becomes even more important if all three teams are tied after Game 162. There's no mathematical way for all three teams to have identical records against one another, meaning there are two possible outcomes. The best head-to-head record, as was discussed previously, gets you into the postseason — which is why it's imperative that the Astros handle their business in both series against the Mariners and Rangers.
If they don't, and all three teams have identical records at the end of the season, the Mariners would win the AL West by way of their 10-3 record against the Rangers and what would be a winning record against the Astros. That would settle the division, meaning the other two teams would be competing for the AL Wild Card spot alongside the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
That thrusts the head-to-head record back into play, and if the Rangers win just a single game against the Astros next week, Texas would own the tiebreaker over Houston and would become the third and final Wild Card team. Next week's homestand could effectively decide the Astros' playoff fate, and at the moment, the odds are not in their favor.