This Jeremy Peña trade proposal would overwhelm Astros, satisfy Red Sox's trade deadline hunt

The Houston Astros have made it clear Jeremy Peña isn’t for the taking. The Boston Red Sox asked about him and were quickly told no. Houston is still planning to operate as a buyer. Okay, so that’s the answer they gave, but what if the Red Sox made them a Godfather-type offer? 

It’s fair to say there’s a difference between checking in and making an offer so loaded that the front office has to at least consider it. To be clear, the Red Sox have not done that yet, at least not publicly. But if they’re serious about getting Peña at this year’s deadline, the price has to start with one prospect who seems like he should be off-limits, but may not be.

If Red Sox overwhelm Astros, Jeremy Peña trade might be possible

It all starts with shortstop prospect Franklin Arias. He’s the presumptive shortstop of the future in Boston. He currently ranks third on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects and seventh by MLB Pipeline. He was just promoted to Triple-A, but was having a monster season as a 20-year-old in the Eastern League, hitting .318/.407/.587 with 17 doubles and 19 home runs to go along with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. 

The move to Triple-A last week suggests that he could make his big-league debut this season. Moving him is the price they probably should be reluctant to pay, but that’s why he has to be the headliner here. There are others in the Red Sox system who might get Dana Brown to listen, but Arias is the one who will get them to think it over.

He may not get them to say yes on his own, so go ahead and add Kyson Witherspoon, a righty who ranks 97th on the Baseball America list. He’s a power pitcher who can touch 99 MPH with a five-pitch mix and the upside of a mid-rotation starter. He hasn’t been great in high-A, but the potential is absolutely there. Adding a controllable arm with the kind of ceiling he has on top of a shortstop of the future is what turns the ask into a conversation.

Add in a lower-level prospect in Boston’s system, maybe a Blake Wehunt or Angel Bastardo, and a lottery ticket, and that’s a package that the Astros would at least have to consider. It’s more than fair value, if not an overpay by the Red Sox, but that’s what they’d have to do to get the Astros to budge.

Peña ranked seventh on Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel’s Top100 trade candidate board, which tells you how the industry values him. Arias and Witherspoon probably move the needle enough. It’s one of the best prospects in baseball and a legitimate prospect, in addition to a couple of others to sweeten the deal. 

It’s worth remembering that Peña was close enough to an extension that everyone thought it was happening before he changed representation. That means that the Astros will likely have to make a move at some point. But without a massive offer, that point isn’t now.

So would they actually say yes? Given how firmly Brown has already said no, the answer is maybe not. But, boy, that offer would be hard to turn down. The Astros are still firmly in the playoff race, but they’d need to dig deep and decide just how likely a playoff run would be, and if they can turn down a top-10 overall prospect and a legitimate prospect arm for someone who is likely to be moved this winter and is definitely leaving after next year if he’s not traded. 

The Red Sox have already shown a willingness to overpay this month when they want to close a gap. If they really want Peña and don’t want to move down to their second choice, maybe they do go bold. At the very least, it’s a package the Astros would have to sit with and think about before hanging up the phone.

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