This former top Astros prospect has seen his stock plummet in a hurry

The Houston Astros' farm system is a critical organizational weakness that won't be rectified any time soon. A recent article by USA Today recently ranked the Astros' farm system 28th in all of baseball, barely beating out the Padres and Angels and a distant competitor to their top-ranked division rival Mariners. In 2025, they had just one player ranked in MLB's Top 100 (Brice Matthews, No. 93) and even his future doesn't seem as bright as some may have hoped.

Unfortunately, Matthews isn't the only prospect struggling to live up to the hype as Luis Baez has seen his stock collapse from one of the best hitters in Houston's minor league ranks to a guy that doesn't even profile as a big leaguer.

Former top outfield prospect Luis Baez continues to struggle despite being far from reaching the big leagues

Baez was signed as an international free agent in 2022 and made quick work of the competition during the first two years of his professional career. A 128 wRC+ in 2023 across 255 minor league plate appearances was enough to make Baez Houston's No. 2 prospect and it seemed like only a matter of time before he became a core piece of the Astros' outfield.

2024 began with Baez at High-A Asheville where the cracks first began to show, posting a 104 wRC+ across 407 plate appearances as more advanced pitchers took advantage of his very aggressive approach at the plate. These struggles dropped Baez to No. 12 in Houston's system and there were some factors that forced the Astros to reconsider his defensive ceiling and future position.

"While the Astros envisioned Baez as a possible center fielder when they signed him, he has slowed down as he has gained weight and is now a below-average runner. He has good instincts but limited range on the outfield corners, where he's an adequate defender who could get more out of his plus arm if he could get to balls quickly. He'll have to stay on top of his conditioning to avoid losing more quickness and winding up at first base."

MLB.com

2025 was Baez's worst minor league season yet, culminating in an 88 wRC+ over just 272 plate appearances. He fell even further in the Astros' rankings to No. 22 after poor performance and he didn't even take the field until June due to the organization wanting Baez to iron out the kinks in his fielding.

Heading into 2026, it's unclear how much of a leash Houston is still willing to give him. Baez's trade value is likely as low as it has ever been, but he is just 22 years old, so perhaps there's still time to right the ship and return to what made him great in the first place.

With the trade market heating up around the division, it's difficult to be optimistic about what the future holds for the Astros. Could a broader big league sell-off be necessary to replenish the club's depleted minor league affiliates or is there still a chance Houston can work with what they have?

If nothing else, Baez can serve as a good litmus test for what's in store. If the Astros are able to help him make the adjustments necessary to get back on a track to the major leagues, then perhaps there's still a glimmer of hope for the next several years. If his stock is only going to go down from here, it may be just one of several systemic issues Houston will need to deal with before returning to championship contention.