Looming MLB lockout complicates Astros trade dilemma even more

Other than some occasional speculation, the Astros haven't made many headlines this winter. The signing of Tatsuya Imai remains the team's lone free agent acquisition of note. On the trade front, they struck a deal to send Mauricio Dubón to the Braves in exchange for Nick Allen but they still haven't fixed many of the roster's shortcomings from last season.

Lately, there have been rumored discussions with the Red Sox to strike a deal that would revamp their outfield, but a major limiting factor for the Astros is the lack of enticing trade assets. The team's farm system had just one Top 100 prospect in 2025 and his value likely won't be enough to put the Astros back on top. Instead, they'll have to leverage their big league talent which could still come with its fair share of obstacles.

The potential of an upcoming labor stoppage is limiting which players other teams are interested in

According to a recent article by Ken Rosenthal for The Athletic, a potential lockout in 2027 is having a dampening effect on trade talks, particularly when it comes to those with two remaining years of club control. These players are difficult to value because their contributions may end up being less than expected if players and owners aren't able to agree on a new CBA when the current one expires after the 2026 season.

For the Astros, there are two players for whom this is the most relevant. Cristian Javier signed a five-year extension heading into the 2023 season and will be owed $21.4 million for 2026 and 2027. In the final two years of Christian Walker's contract, he'll be paid a salary of $20 million. Houston hasn't discussed trading Javier much but the organization has been trying to get Walker's contract off the books after an immensely disappointing debut season with the team.

Although he was one of the best first basemen in MLB during the final years of his Diamondbacks tenure, Walker managed just a 97 OPS+ with 0.2 rWAR last season. He'll turn 35 right around Opening Day and the hopes of a return to form aren't exactly high. Combined with his high salary and the inconvenient timing of his return to free agency, it's no wonder why the Astros are having so much trouble moving him.

This trade uncertainty is expected to carry over into this year's trade deadline as well, so if the Astros are on the cusp of postseason contention and are in need of additional roster support, they may not be able to afford the players they really need. A deal may still happen but it's an impactful headwind that may explain the lack of a market for pieces that the team does want to move.

The possibility of having a shortened season 2027 is already bad enough but the possibility of Houston having to wait a few more years before being competitive again may be even worse.