Something has to change if the Astros are going to survive Lance McCullers Jr.’s return

With Houston Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr.'s comeback tour hitting an injury snag, the club is going to have to take a long, hard look at how it deploys him moving forward once he returns from his blister issue.

Once considered a key to Houston's playoff hopes, the right-hander who succumbed to devastating injuries during the 2022 campaign and had his return to action delayed until 2025 due to numerous setbacks, is a big reason why starting pitching is shooting up their trade deadline shopping list.

With a 6.90 ERA through 11 starts, McCullers has proven that he cannot be counted on, and the blister issue that landed him on the injured list isn't the root cause of his struggles. With ace Hunter Brown faltering with a 6.43 ERA in the month of July and unknowns like Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon, and Brandon Walter rounding out the rotation alongside star southpaw Framber Valdez, something has got to give.

The Astros can't keep waiting for Lance McCullers Jr. to put it all together

While Brown has joined McCullers with some serious July struggles, the pair has put an enormous tax on the bullpen with their short outings this month. So far, the Astros' pen has risen to the challenge with a 3.26 ERA, good for third in baseball, however with the dog days of August approaching, they cannot be expected to maintain that level of performance while being ground into the dirt.

As for McCullers, the 44.1 innings he's hurled this year have made it clear that the injuries have taken their toll. Once renowned for his superb sinker, the former All-Star has seen the pitch wane in both velocity and effectiveness.

During his last fully healthy season in 2021, McCullers' sinker was his bread and butter, being utilized 34% of the time and averaging 93.9 miles per hour, generating a 56.9% ground ball rate. This year, the sinker has taken a back seat to his slider with it's utilization falling to just 21% while the breaking pitch is being thrown a third of the time. The velocity on his sinker is down substantially as well, coming in at 91.5 miles per hour. Those developments have McCullers' ground ball rate falling to a more pedestrian 43.8%.

That development has led to a lot more hard contact that is traveling a long way. This year, McCullers is surrendering 1.83 HR/9 versus a previous career high of 0.84 coming back in 2018.

This all puts Houston in a tough spot. Injuries keep decimating their lineup, further amping up the need to pursue bats at the deadline, while the inability to count on McCullers makes it likely that more than one starting pitching acquisition is also required. That's a tall order for a team that is trying to retool on the fly and features one of the league's thinnest farm systems.

That's why it's imperative that the Astros find a way to make McCullers useful once he returns from the IL. Perhaps a move to the bullpen or a role change to something of an opener would bring some life back into his arsenal, allowing him to let loose for an inning or so without the need to conserve energy, amping up the effectiveness of his diminished repertoire.

Whatever the case may be, this IL stint can't be looked at as a simple reset for the struggling hurler. Houston must get creative and find a solution to the McCullers conundrum upon his return.

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