Why the Astros' 2025 playoff hopes may quietly hinge on Lance McCullers Jr.

Once one of the Houston Astros' brightest young stars, it has been a long and arduous journey back to the mound for Lance McCullers Jr. The 31-year-old last pitched a full season back in 2021, going 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA, which saw him place seventh in the AL Cy Young voting. A flexor tendon injury to his elbow and subsequent setbacks limited him in 2022, and cost him his entire 2023 and 2024 seasons.

McCullers finally rejoined the Astros after 915 days away, taking the mound for the first time in a big league game back in May, and working through the process of knocking off the rust. Horrifically, he had to deal with some truly unhinged behavior as he struggled to find his groove after such a long layoff.

After the understandable bumpiness of making his return after such a long layoff, the right-hander has begun to settle in nicely, showcasing the strikeout stuff that once made him so promising and allowing three earned runs or fewer over his last five starts, tallying 25.1 innings pitched over that time period.

Having McCullers return to form couldn't come at a better time for the Astros as the team looks to take advantage of a weak American League and make a playoff run while rebuilding on the fly.

Lance McCullers Jr. may be the key to the Houston Astros making the playoffs in 2025

The Astros' starting rotation ranks among the top-10 in the majors with a 3.53 ERA, but that stat is very misleading. Houston's starters are a group that is extremely strong at the top, with Hunter Brown emerging as a legitimate Cy Young contender and Framber Valdez putting together yet another All-Star caliber season that will likely make him a very rich man this coming offseason.

Moreover, the pieces behind Brown and Valdez that Houston was hoping would step up and solidify the middle and back-end of the rotation have been dropping like flies. Houston has already lost a key piece of the Kyle Tucker trade, Hayden Wesneski, for the season to Tommy John surgery.

Ronel Blanco, who looked to be breaking out last season, is also done for the year, succumbing to the same injury. The Astros had high hopes for 25-year-old righty Spencer Arrighetti, however he's been on the shelf since April with a broken thumb and is still weeks away from returning, with no guarantee that he'll fulfill his potential once he does.

That leaves Houston with an uninspiring crop of arms that are tough to rely on. With an offense that has sputtered for most of the season, it will be the pitching, particularly the starters, that Houston will need to carry them through to the playoffs.

The Astros won't be able to do it with just Brown and Valdez and a bunch of duds behind them. That's where McCullers comes in. Prior to 2022, he was one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball, earning an All-Star nod in 2017 and pitching in a plethora of big games over the years.

Houston will need him to provide reliability and will lean on that big game experience as the fight gets tougher during the stretch run. The good news is, after shaking off the rust in his first two starts, McCullers appears to be on that track, which is a very encouraging sign.

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