Projecting the Astros’ 2025 Opening Day rotation after the latest injury updates

Houston Astros pitcher Hunter Brown
Houston Astros pitcher Hunter Brown | Tim Warner/GettyImages

The Houston Astros have a loaded starting rotation heading into the 2025 season. But there's just one problem — many of them will begin the year on the injured list. Astros fans know too well that numerous starting pitchers landed on the IL last season, and several of those same pitchers will begin the upcoming campaign where they left off.

Houston will be without Luis Garcia, J.P. France, Christian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr. at the outset of the 2025 season. While every one of those pitchers is expected to return at some point next season, all four are likely to remain out of action until sometime around or after the All-Star break.

That will obviously and severely impact the Astros' starting rotation to begin the 2025 season. While Houston has the horses to get it done, the club cannot afford any injuries during spring training. With what we now know will be a very thin Opening Day rotation, which five hurlers will make the cut and open the season with the Astros?

Projecting the Astros’ 2025 Opening Day rotation after injury updates on Christian Javier, Luis Garcia, and others

Framber Valdez, Astros left-handed pitcher

There were rumblings earlier this offseason that Houston was shopping Valdez, but after the Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, those rumors went away pretty quickly. Valdez enters the upcoming season without a long-term deal, but the southpaw is still the unquestioned ace of the Astros' starting rotation and should be Houston's Opening Day starter.

Hunter Brown, Astros right-handed pitcher

If Valdez is No. 1, then Brown is 1A. The right-hander made a huge leap in 2024 and could surpass the aforementioned Astros' ace if he matches his production from a season ago. Brown started 30 games in 2024 and posted a 3.58 ERA while striking out over 25% of the batters he faced.

Ronel Blanco, Astros right-handed pitcher

No one among the Astros' fanbase expected to see Blanco break out like he did in 2024. An also-ran prior to the start of last season, Blanco tossed a no-hitter and became a key cog in the Houston rotation after so many starters hit the IL with injuries. The Astros will be asking a lot if they expect a repeat performance in 2025, and the fanbase hopes the right-hander is up to the task assuming the Astros don't have to limit his innings too much.

Spencer Arrighetti, Astros right-handed pitcher

Arrighetti spent more time in the bigs last season than many — including himself — expected. The 25-year put up good numbers in the minors back in 2023, but few expected him to join the ranks of the big league rotation last season. Arrighetti showed flashes, but ultimately struggled to the tune of a 4.53 ERA and 10.3% walk rate. Houston is hoping Arrighetti will avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx, as the Astros will need more out of the him at the outset in 2025.

Hayden Wesneski, Astros right-handed pitcher

An unheralded part of the Tucker trade earlier this offseason, Wesneski may become an indispensable piece of the Astros rotation when the 2025 season begins. With a quartet of Astros pitchers beginning the season on the IL, Wesneski is likely to be slotted in as Houston's No. 5 starter. Wesneski is not a strikeout artist, but the former Cubs' pitcher does a decent job of keeping free runners off base. The Astros will need Wesneski to eat innings early on in 2025.

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