Predicting Jeremy Peña’s next contract after his August swoon with Astros

Over the last five seasons, Jeremy Pena has emerged as one of the best young shortstops in baseball for the Houston Astros. He showed out in his rookie season in 2022, posting 3.3 fWAR, led mostly by his Gold Glove defense. 2023 and 2024 were minor steps back, with WRC+ numbers under 100 and fWAR totals under 3.0, but in 2025 he put everything together.

Pena posted a 135 WRC+ and eight Outs Above Average at shortstop, which gave him a career-high 5.7 fWAR. He got his first career All-Star bid and finished 10th in AL MVP voting. With two years left to go until his first foray into free agency, it looked like Pena was on track to be the next $300 million man in baseball. Halfway through 2026, that looked good, but he had a major falloff.

The soon-to-be 29-year-old was having another great season at the plate until August. Through the end of July, the righty was hitting .317/.370/.508/.879. Then, in August, he hit .184 with a .674 OPS, dropping his season-long numbers to .282 with an .814 OPS. His defense has also fallen off sharply this season, with -2 OAA, which has resulted in 2.9 fWAR through August 27, a sharp decline from 2025.

Pena still has one year left of arbitration until he's a free agent. Even with his downturn in play, he'll still get a lofty raise. Spotrac projects his next season's salary at $17.5 million, up from $9.475 million this year. What he'll get in free agency has likely taken a big dip, though.

Jeremy Pena drew comparisons to a former Brewers shortstop, and over a year later, it doesn't look to bad

In May of 2025, ESPN Senior MLB Insider Jeff Passan wrote that Peña was on track to get a similar contract to the one Willy Adames got with the Giants: 7 years, $182 million. Passan wrote at the time, "Peña isn't much of a threat to finish high in MVP voting". That was before his breakout 2025, which shot his contract estimates through the roof. 2026 has undone that work, though.

Adames remains a pretty comparable player now. He had a breakout fourth season, his first full season in Milwaukee, though not as good as Pena's 2025, and then fell back in his fifth year, which was better than Pena's 2026. Adames then had a career-best season in 2024, his final year in Milwaukee, where he had a 121 WRC+ and a career-high 4.9 fWAR. That's really what earned him the contract in San Francisco.

Adames ' season-high WRC+ was 126, at age 24, his second year in Tampa. Pena's 2025 and 2026 seasons are higher than that. As previously mentioned, Adames has had better individual defensive seasons than Pena, even though he had zero OAA in his final season with the Brewers. Adames was also a year younger headed into free agency than Pena will be. It isn't a perfect comparison, though there rarely are in baseball, but it creates a really good baseline.

Adames is making $26 million per year. If Pena bounces back through the rest of the 2026 season and can be closer to his 2025 self through next year, he'll beat that AAV and will likely get a similar-length contract. Pena is also a Scott Boras client, the agent best-known for getting the most for his clients. A solid prediction is $177 million over six years (29.5 AAV).

Only three shortstops in recent history have received contracts longer than eight years: Corey Seager, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts. All contracts that don't look nearly as appealing now as they did when they were signed. Only Adames and Dansby Swanson have seven-year contracts, and neither was 30 when they were signed. Pena will likely have better production than Adames and Swanson when he becomes a free agent, earning him a higher AAV, but because he is 30, and seeing what has happened with Seager, Turner, and Bogaerts, it seems very unlikely that he would get much longer than a six-year commitment.

Pena is an excellent shortstop. He quickly became one of the game's best and helped Houston fill the void left by Carlos Correa. He has shown elite-level production in stretches, and if he can keep a level of consistency, then he will be the next shortstop to earn a mega-deal.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow