These bloated contracts will torpedo Astros' attempts to upgrade at trade deadline

Houston Astros pitchers Rafael Montero
Houston Astros pitchers Rafael Montero / Logan Riely/GettyImages

The Houston Astros are assumed by most industry sources to be buyers at the MLB trade deadline, and that's a good thing. Houston has been hit hard by injuries — specifically to their starting rotation. The Astros are without Justin Verlander at the moment, and pitchers like Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy are out for the rest of the season.

But adding an extra bat could be in Houston's future as well. After parting ways with Jose Abreu earlier this season, the Astros could definitely use an upgrade at first base. Names like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso have been tossed about as potential fits for Houston.

But there's a problem, and it's not the type of thing that Astros fans are going to want to hear. Houston has a lot of money tied up in some bloated contracts, and the Astros sit about $4 million away from the second luxury tax threshold. The Astros will already be paying 20% on all overages, and adding more than $4 million to the payroll will trigger a 12% surcharge. Like it or not, Astros fans, that's going to have an impact on the team's trade deadline decisions.

Lance McCullers Jr. and Rafael Montero's contracts will handcuff the Astros at the MLB trade deadline

Two of the biggest offenders in pushing the Astros' payroll so high, while doing nothing to justify their presence on the roster, are Lance McCullers Jr. and Rafael Montero. McCullers is pulling down $17.7 million this season, while Montero's 2024 salary is $11.5 million. Those two players count nearly $28 million toward the Competitive Balance Tax.

Throw in the fact that Abreu, though he's no longer with the organization, is also a drain on the Astros' payroll, and Houston's got a mess on their hands. The Astros released Abreu back in June, but he still counts nearly $20 million toward the luxury tax. That's a combined $48 million in resources for an injured starter (who may miss the entire season), a reliever with a 6.42 FIP, and a former MVP who couldn't hit his weight before being cut loose.

By the way, it gets worse. Those three players are still on the books for next season as well. These three contracts will come back to haunt the Astros at the upcoming trade deadline and will greatly impact the type of players GM Dana Brown is able to target. It's highly unlikely that Astros owner Jim Crane will bypass that second threshold, meaning a blockbuster trade before July 30 won't be in the cards.

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