Predicting the Astros Opening Day Roster: Starting Rotation Edition

Opening Day is officially less than two weeks away, and we’re ready to make some predictions on the Astros Opening Day roster. Some position battles are yet to be decided, but we’ll give it a shot at predicting who comes out on top. 

Houston brings a loaded lineup and pitching staff into the 2023 season, but they will be down Lance McCullers Jr. and likely Michael Brantley when the season begins. A few players will make the Opening Day roster that likely won’t be on it once LMJ and Uncle Mike return. 

Of course, some names may not make it that deserve to, either because a less talented player is kept for contractual/option purposes, or so an arm can be stretched out as a depth starter in AAA. 

First we took a look at which infielders should make the roster. Then we dove into the outfield. We broke down the two utility players that will make the roster: David Hensley and Mauricio Dubon. Now let's dive in on the six arms that will break camp in the rotation.

Ace: Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez will be the Astros Opening Day starter. He’s coming off of a top-five Cy Young finish and a dominant postseason. 

Valdez went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and a record for consecutive quality starts recorded. He was even more lights out in the playoffs, going 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA. He’s one of the most durable arms in the game and a proven big game performer. 

He’s looked sharp in the spring across his 3 starts, scattering 11 hits, one walk and one HBP across nine innings, carrying a 1.33 WHIP and 2.00 ERA. 

Valdez may suffer some slight regression with the elimination of the shift due to his reliance on ground balls, but nonetheless, he’s an All-Star pitcher at the top of Houston’s rotation. 

#2/Co-Ace: Cristian Javier

Cristian Javier will open the season as the Astros #2, but that’s more of an on paper #2 than anything. He’ll fulfill the same role Valdez did last year to JV, operating as a co-ace more than anything.  

For the first time in his big league career, Javier’s role is solidified. No longer will he fluctuate back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. 

Fresh off of his offseason contract extension, Javier will look to build off of an 11-9 record, 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.7 strikeouts per nine. He started two combined no-hitters last season, and like Valdez, performs even better under the brightest of lights.

Don’t be surprised to look up and see Javier in the AL Cy Young race at year’s end. 

#3: Luis Garcia

Luis Garcia is the Astros #3 to begin the season. For as much as debate raged around Garcia’s now banned rock the baby delivery, he’s been dominant in Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic. 

His 1.4 bWAR and 3.72 ERA were somewhat disappointing after his 2021 season, but Houston didn’t need much more out of Garcia in their #4 slot. 

Garcia's relief appearance in Game 3 of the ALDS will be talked about in Houston for a long time, and that appears to be the pitcher that is here to stay with his new mechanics. 

We listed Garcia as a breakout candidate this year, and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see Garcia reach an All-Star level for the first time. 

#4: Jose Urquidy

José Urquidy is the Astros #4 this season, and they can’t ask for much more than what Urquidy has historically brought them as a back of the rotation arm. For his career, Urquidy is 24-13 with a 3.74 ERA. He finished last season 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, both numbers slightly elevated from his career averages. 

Once again, Urquidy showed out in a World Series, throwing three scoreless relief innings in the Game 3 loss, helping preserve Dusty Baker’s bullpen and catapult the Astros to three straight wins. Urquidy is now 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA for his career in the Fall Classic, quite a comforting statistic for as often as the Astros are playing for the Commissioner’s Trophy.

He’ll start the year as the fourth option, but if either of the two names to follow come out and exceed expectations, they could very well jump him in the rotation. 

#5: Hunter Brown

Houston’s top prospect, Hunter Brown will be the Astros fifth starter. Brown is coming off of a dominant season in AAA in which he won the PCL Pitcher of the Year. 

He was blocked by how many dominant arms the Astros had, but did receive a late season call-up when rosters expanded, and went 2-0 over his seven appearances with a 0.89 ERA, pitching his way onto the playoff roster.

Brown still battles command issues at times, and has been somewhat erratic this Spring. He looked better in his third start, working with his AAA battery-mate in Korey Lee.

Though his mechanics eerily resemble those of his childhood idol and former teammate Justin Verlander, the Astros don’t need Brown to replace the 2022 Cy Young winner atop the rotation. But if Brown can eat 135-150 quality innings with an ERA between 3.50-3.90, that’s a big win for Houston. Anything else is just a cherry on top.