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For the Houston Astros, one issue that has lingered over their entire 2024 season has been the status of Justin Verlander. Ever since Verlander went down with a neck injury, updates on his condition and return timeline have been largely nebulous, and it is decidedly unclear as to how he will even look when he does return.
Fortunately, the Astros did get good news this week, as Verlander should return in August after a promising set of bullpens. However, his injury (and his age) has also been a reminder that his time with the Astros, and in the big leagues in general, could be drawing to an end. The only question is whether or not he can throw together one last run and help the Astros get where they want to go this season.
Justin Verlander, who is nearing a return for the Astros, has tossed 57 innings this year
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 1, 2024
It is a near certainty that his 2025 option will not vest, taking the Mets off the hook for the $17.5M they would have owed next season
He would have to return and pitch into extra innings… pic.twitter.com/5ShiESCLm3
Justin Verlander contract hints Astros fans may witness swan song upon his return
To be clear, Verlander retiring or even leaving the Astros after the season isn't a sure thing. The guy clearly still has a lot of competitive drive, and as one of the best pitchers of his generation, he is going to always be an interesting option up until the day he actually retires. It wouldn't be crazy for Houston to bring him back on a less costly deal for 2025 and just see what happens from there.
However, the chances that Verlander could vest his 2025 contract option now are basically zero. There just isn't enough time left in the season for that to happen, and that is with his return date still very much up in the air. For those looking for a silver lining, that bodes well for the Astros having some more payroll to play with this coming offseason for the 2025 roster.
What matters now is what Verlander looks like when he is back on the mound. Many have forgotten that while he hasn't been particularly close to what he looked at during his peak, the 41-year-old version of Verlander has been pretty good this year when he has pitched, with a 3.95 ERA in 10 starts. Just being that guy again would be great news.
For that Astros, that may be all they need from Verlander the rest of the way. If he can do that, the rotation should be in pretty decent shape heading into the postseason, assuming Yusei Kikuchi pitches well after Houston paid up to trade for him. If Verlander can just summon one last burst from his aging body, it could end up being a storybook ending for his Hall of Fame career.