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Astros Rumors: Who Should Start in the Outfield on Opening Day
Left Field
There is no question Yordan Alvarez starts in the Astros Opening Day lineup. He’s a top-three hitter in the game, coming off of a season in which he slashed .306/.406/.613. His 1.019 OPS was second best in the game and he finished in the 100th percentile in Statcast expected metrics in: average exit velocity, xwOBA, hard hit percentage, xBA, xSLG and barrel percentage. Needless to say, he's a lock to start.
The question is whether he starts in left field or as the designated hitter. It’s believed he will make the majority of his starts in left field, but would a potential free agent acquisition move him back into a DH role?
After all, Houston has been linked to Michael Brantley, Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto. We took a more extensive look at each candidate here. Brantley brings the most consistency, Benintendi has the highest floor and Conforto has the highest ceiling. All three are quality left-handed options that would help balance the lineup.
With Uncle Mike, assuming health, you know you are getting a .300 hitter, a quality defender and a smart base runner. That says nothing of the veteran leadership he brings to the clubhouse. He's also already got an established rapport with the locker room. A convincing case can be made to resign him.
Benintendi is a good defender, high average hitter and a gritty player that has more than once ripped out the collective hearts of the Astros. His power stroke has mysteriously vanished, but there is no place like Minute Maid to help him find it. It's easy to picture Benintendi slotted either second or seventh in a lineup that he would help bring much needed depth.
The most intriguing, and the most risky option, would be Conforto. Houston flirted with Conforto last season before the postseason, but he went unsigned. Might now be the time to rectify this? He's got an .824 career OPS and an OPS+ of 124, meaning he's 24% better than league average.
Though most of his career starts have come in right, left field may be his best fit. Across 259 games as a left fielder, he's saved 10 runs defensively. With the small left field in Minute Maid, it's easy to see him blossoming into a truly elite defensive outfielder.
Both Brantley and Conforto bring health question marks to the table. Brantley is rehabbing a shoulder injury that has now cost him time in both Cleveland and Houston. Conforto sat out all of 2022 with a shoulder injury of his own.
Regardless of Yordan or a free-agent, Houston will be starting a left-handed hitting left fielder on Opening Day. So who is left in center and right?
Center Field
Center field might bring the most question marks of any of the three Astros' outfield spots. To be fair, they aren't all warranted. Chas McCormick is coming off of a season in which he hit .245 with a .738 OPS and 110 OPS+. He's in the 84th percentile in sprint speed and was 93rd percentile in both outs above average and outfielder jump.
Is he George Springer? No. But he's an above-average big league center fielder with continued room to grow. That didn't stop the Astros from giving time in center to three others last year: Jose Siri, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón.
The Meyers experiment was understandable. He had been a fantastic player in his short big league stint before injuring himself in the 2021 playoffs. Houston hoped he would regain form and was their center fielder of the future. He struggled mightily upon his return and eventually was sent back to AAA for consistent ABs. Is he still the center fielder of the future? Maybe. But the decision should come down to McCormick or an upgrade in a trade.
The most obvious upgrade would be Bryan Reynolds. Rarely do we see stars request a trade this early in their contract, but Reynolds has done just that. His career .842 OPS would restore the Astros' lineup to levels not seen since 2019. That said, he'll be ridiculously expensive. Is an upgrade over an already above-average bat worth some combination of Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and Luis Garcia, plus prospects in the wings? The Astros' GM by committee may have to answer just that.
Also linked to the Astros is Diamondbacks outfielder/catcher Daulton Varsho. He brings unparalleled versatility and truly elite outfield defense. That said, his actual stats (.237 average, 27 home runs, .735 OPS) in contrast to his expected stats show a wildly lucky hitter primed for steep regression.
Then again, his 27 home runs would project to 34 in Minute Maid. Varsho is truly boom or bust. If he puts it all together, you've got 30 home runs, an .800 OPS, and a world class defender. But what if he doesn't? Is he just a Joey Gallo that also can catch?
He's going to cost a king's ransom to land. There is a reason no other center fielders play catcher. They just don't exist. Like Reynolds, he'd likely cost some combination of Javier, Brown and Garcia.
The Astros won the World Series on the backs of one of the best collection of arms ever assembled. They've already lost Verlander. Is an upgrade in center worth expending another arm?
Pedro Leon can't be ruled out of the equation either. The Astros' #4 prospect swiped 38 bags with 17 home runs and 27 doubles in 115 games in Sugar Land. He also struck out 145 times against AAA pitching. Somewhere Joey Gallo is trembling...
How did Joey Gallo's name just show up twice in a four paragraph span? That's how many questions the Astros have to answer in center field before Opening Day.
Right Field
Zero debate to be had here. Kyle Tucker is the starting right fielder for the foreseeable future. The only question about his status is whether King Tuck plays right through 2025 or if Houston locks him up with a long-term extension.
He’s coming off of his first Gold Glove and has recorded back to back seasons of double digit defensive runs saved. He’s a menace on the base paths and is truly a threat to steal 30 bags. His power makes him a rare 30/30 threat in the modern game. And with the elimination of the shift, his .257/.330/.478 slash line should go through the roof.
For 2023, expect Tucker to post an OPS that easily clears .900, swipe between 20 and 30 bases, drive in 100+ runs and play the best defensive right field in the game. Enjoy him while he’s here. He’s every bit of a superstar.
The Final Verdict
Yordan Alvarez is a competent left fielder. He’s got an above average arm and the small confines of Minute Maid ensure he’a not a total liability on balls hit over his head. That said, his bat is too valuable to risk crashing into walls and diving into foul territory.
Yordan should be the everyday DH. The Astros opening day outfield should consist of Michael Conforto, Chas McCormick and Kyle Tucker. That’s an elite defensive lineup that should combine for around 70 home runs. If Conforto is right, both he and Tucker should clear an .850 OPS. Chas is an above average bat and a phenomenal defender. If he continues to improve, he's a 20-25 home run center fielder. Not much more can be asked for from the 8-hole in the lineup.
This combination will afford Yordan the opportunity to spend the majority of his time focused on pulverizing baseballs into the second deck.
Yordan and David Hensley would be able to spell Conforto, as well as Chas sliding over to make periodic starts in the case of a Jake Meyers' resurgence in center.
An Astros' Opening Day lineup with Conforto gives Houston seven all-star caliber bats, one above average bat in Chas, and the invaluable Martín Maldonado behind the dish. Another deep October run will be all but solidified.