5 trade packages that could convince the Astros to trade Framber Valdez

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As much as Dana Brown has said that he isn't going to trade any of the Houston Astros' key players this offseason, there has still been a lot of smoke around the idea over the last month or so. Houston finds themselves with very limited room to maneuver given their payroll situation leading to what has been a very quiet offseason thus far. One name that has popped up more and more as a potential trade piece is Astros starter Framber Valdez.

By all accounts, the likelihood that Framber is traded is pretty low. Valdez is probably the best pitcher on an Astros' team that has aspirations of making the World Series again in 2024. However, making such a move may be the only way for the Astros to free up some payroll to address other issues with the roster while also restocking a pretty thin farm system. Two years of control of a pitcher as good as Framber would fetch a nice premium, after all.

So far, the word is that while the Astros are not actively shopping Valdez around, they aren't hanging up the phone as soon as other teams ask about him, either. At least six teams have called and expressed interest in Valdez, although there is no indication that those conversations have gotten beyond the introductory phase just yet.

The question now becomes what would it take to get the Astros interested? They have two years of (fairly expensive) team control of Framber who is probably a top 10 pitcher in the American League at minimum. Houston wouldn't be interested in taking on much, if any, payroll in any deal and they would want some big league ready talent in return.

With those conditions in mind, here is a look at some trade frameworks that could get the Astros interested in moving Framber Valdez. These are just the cores of potential packages for Valdez as it would probably take at least another fringe prospect or two to get a deal done, but there isn't much sense in speculating on those sorts of minor names. On to the list...

Braves send Vaughn Grissom, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Spencer Schwellenbach

The Braves have been one of the more obvious teams this offseason that would very much like to add a starting pitcher. They missed out on Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray and are not the type of team to hand out lengthy and expensive deals that a guy like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or even Jordan Montgomery are going to command. They have been in on Dylan Cease's trade market as well, but there doesn't seem to be much movement on the White Sox's side there just yet.

Given that Dana Brown helped build most of the Braves' current farm system, he is going to be intimately familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of most of his options with Atlanta. Vaughn Grissom would give Houston a big league ready bat who just doesn't have a big league spot with the Braves right now. AJ Smith-Shawver, a Texas native, would add a big league arm with significant upside given the quality of his fastball and Brown is well-known to absolutely love Spencer Schwellenbach's potential on the mound going back to when he drafted him with the Braves.

Amongst trade packages that could feasibly land Valdez, Houston could do a lot worse than starting with a core of a package like the one the Braves could offer.

Dodgers send Michael Busch, Gavin Stone, and Joendry Vargas

The Dodgers' rotation is a hot mess. Shohei Ohtani was a huge addition without question, but he isn't pitching next season and no one knows what exactly he is going to look like on the mound when he returns from his second Tommy John surgery. LA did also trade for Tyler Glasnow and promptly extended him, but Glasnow has basically zero track record of staying healthy as good as he can be. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and his future is in doubt after having shoulder surgery.

As a result, LA still really could use another rotation arm to bolster the ranks until hopefully Walker Buehler returns and provides some stability. While the Dodgers have seemingly pulled back in trade talks for other starters like Cease since landing Glasnow, they could be an ideal trade partner for Houston to work with if they decide that trading Framber is the play.

The Astros should not settle for any packages for Valdez that don't include talent that is ready for prime time. Fortunately, the Dodgers have a pair of guys that fit the bill nicely. Michael Busch is a big-time hitting prospect without a firm defensive home at the moment and Gavin Stone is a top 5 prospect in LA's farm system with a fantastic changeup who struggled in his first look in the big leagues in 2023.

As for Joendry Vargas, he would give the Astros some long-term depth in their farm system. He is a fresh-faced international signee that has a lot of power projection at the plate and who should be able to stick at shortstop. Even if he has to slide over to third as he physically matures, his bat should still play at the hot corner.

Giants send Kyle Harrison, Bryce Eldridge, and Luis Matos

It kind of sad to see the Giants in such a desperate state. Despite having all the money in the world to add a big name or two the last couple of offseasons, they are always a bridesmaid and never a bride. Some of that is the state of the Giants' current roster that could use a boost to be a more attractive free agent destination and that is where acquiring Framber could make a lot of sense as pairing Framber with Logan Webb would make a very fearsome 1-2 punch in the rotation.

The Giants' farm system is actually sneakily good with several options that could work. However, we will remain steadfast that at least one piece in any Valdez trade has to be close to big league ready. The name to circle when it comes to the Giants is Kyle Harrison. Harrison had an okay big league debut in 2023 with a 4.15 ERA, but lefties with his fastball/slider combination and the ability to miss bats are incredibly rare and would be a fine replacement for Valdez in Houston's rotation.

Bryce Eldridge was only drafted this past year out of high school, so he is a ways away. However, the two-way prospect is up to the mid-90's on the mound and has a ton of raw power at the plate. That sort of upside is hard to pass up. Luis Matos was among the Giants' top prospects thanks to his ability to make consistently good contact in the minor leagues. He made it to the big leagues in 2023 with middling success, but also finds himself in a crowded Giants outfield now that they have signed Jung Hoo Lee.

This package gives the Astros a big league outfielder with real upside, a potential frontline starter with some command issues in Harrison, and a fun lottery ticket prospect who is several years away from contributing. For two years of Valdez while also getting some payroll relief, the Astros should listen if such an offer is on the table.

Red Sox send Blaze Jordan, Wikelman Gonzalez, and Roman Anthony

Boston's pitching issues in 2023 were well-documented. Despite having one of the best offenses in the AL East last season, the Red Sox finished dead last in the division thanks to having the 20th ranked pitching staff (both starters and relievers together) by fWAR. The new head of Boston's front office, Craig Breslow, has vowed to change that going into 2024 and adding Framber Valdez makes a lot of sense towards that end.

The nice thing about the Red Sox is that they have a loaded farm system when it comes to position player prospects. For an organization like Houston who could potentially lose Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker over the next few years, that should hold a lot of appeal. However, they should still be looking to target the guys that are closer to the big leagues in any deal.

Wikelman Gonzalez is the arm of choice here. Boston doesn't have a lot pitching prospects worth poaching, but Gonzalez is a good one as he struck out 168 batters in 111.1 innings of work in the minors last season. He will have to get his walk issues from 2023 under control, but there is enough swing and miss with him to at least take the chance.

Then come the bats and the Astros would add a couple of good ones here in Blaze Jordan and Roman Anthony. Jordan has impressed over the last few seasons thanks to his plus power and consistent hit tool. One top of that, there is at least a chance he could play third base in the big leagues which would be a nice plus in the event that Bregman does indeed walk.

Roman Anthony is the big name in this deal, however. Red Sox fans may actually riot if he is included in any trade. He can hit, get on base at a high clip, and has some real pop from the left side while also having the athleticism to make things happen on the bases and in the field. If the Astros get the chance to get this sort of package (or something close) for Framber, they need to at least get beyond the initial phone call phase.

Cubs send Cade Horton, Kevin Alcantara, and Jordan Wicks

Finally we come to the Cubs who have had a pretty weird offseason. Despite losing both Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman to free agency and not making any moves just yet, they have been in the thick of some of the juiciest free agent rumors this offseason. Given that they signed Dansby Swanson last offseason and all of the smoke this offseason, this is a team that desperately wants to make a splash this offseason and make noise in the vulnerable NL Central.

There is a difference in wanting to make a big move and actually being able to pull it off. In the case of a trade for Framber, the Cubs' farm system is a bit top heavy and there is basically zero chance that they would trade Pete Crow-Armstrong. However, there is enough prospect depth in Chicago to potentially make a trade worthwhile to the Astros.

Prospects that are near big league ready that are also worth targeting are not plentiful with the Cubs, but Kevin Alcantara is a fun one. The outfielder was a highly touted international prospect signed by the Yankees before the Cubs acquired him in trade. Alcantara blasted his way all the way to Double-A in 2023 with an .810 OPS and he still has a ton of physical projection left in that 6'6 frame of his.

Jordan Wicks is a former first round pick with an outstanding changeup from the left side. His big league debut only went pretty well (4.41 ERA in seven starts), but Wicks has #2/#3 starter upside due his ability to command all of his pitches. The big get in this package, though, would be Horton and his plus fastball and slider. Horton's dominance at the end of his college career made him the seventh overall pick in 2022 and he demolished minor league hitters in 2023 with a 2.65 ERA across three levels of the minors.

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