5 storylines that will decide the fate of the Astros season

In 2022, the Astros came up just one game short of their fifth trip to the World Series in seven years. While they did capture yet another AL West crown, it's title or bust these days in H-Town, and Houston fell short of their ultimate goal.

With most of the regulars back, and some in some new roles, the Astros should yet again be serious contenders in 2024 under first-year manager Joe Espada.

5 storylines that will decide the fate of the Astros season

Houston could make another run at a title, or they could finally get knocked off of their perch atop the AL West. These five storylines will determine how the 2024 season unfolds for Houston.

No. 5: How does Joe Espada do in his first year as manager?

Joe Espada was absolutely the right man for the job, and after Dusty Baker's retirement, the Astros wisely promoted their bench coach to manager. Espada, who has travelled quite a road to get here, will now call the shots in Houston after acting as the bench coach since 2018.

He knows the clubhouse well, seems to have the trust of the players, and says all the right things. It won't be difficult for Espada to make better lineup decisions than his predecessor, and Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick have already received the stamp as everyday players.

But he will still have plenty of challenges to navigate over the course of his first 162 in charge. How does Espada balance the back end of the bullpen with three horses all deserving of closing games? What do he do if José Abreu still vastly underperforms at first base? How does he manage the workload of young arms like Hunter Brown and keep a piece like Cristian Javier fresh? Assuming LMJ and Luis Garcia return healthy around the All-Star break, how does he reshape the rotation?

There are countless challenges that arise over the course of the season. How well Espada navigates them in his first go-round will go a long way towards determining how their season unfolds.

No. 3: Can Yainer Díaz handle the full-time workload?

Yainer Díaz was everything the Astros could have asked for as a rookie in 2023. In only 355 at-bats, Diaz hit .282 with 23 home runs, 60 RBI and an .846 OPS. His defense was better by every publicly available metric than incumbent starter Martín Maldonado, but even with his fantastic debut, Díaz still had room to grow both at the plate and defensively.

How will the 25-year-old adjust as a game caller? He's never caught Framber Valdez or Justin Verlander, two notoriously finicky starters, and in the case of Verlander, one with a devout routine. Díaz will have to put in a great deal of work to build rapport with Houston's top two arms.

Additionally, for as great as he was at the plate, Díaz's free-swinging approach does leave some holes that were exposed in the postseason. He finished 2023 in the first percentile in both walk rate and chase rate. While he doesn't need to start working walks and pitch counts like Alex Bregman, he can stand to evolve like the also free-swinging Jose Altuve, who went from a 2.1% walk rate in his first season to 10.7% last year.

If Díaz can handle the workload, the Astros' offense and defense will be vastly improved over 2023, and they'll no longer have an all-but-assured out in their lineup.

No. 2: How many games do they get out of Jose Altuve and Yordan Álvarez?

Injuries are unavoidable over the course of 162 games. Every team battles injury, and by league standards, the Astros were actually remarkably healthy in 2023. They didn't miss a great deal of games as a team in 2023, but those that did miss time were vitally important.

Jose Altuve broke his thumb in the WBC and played only 90 games for the Astros. Their offense just isn't the same without their catalyst batting leadoff. Álvarez has been plagued with knee troubles and various ailments throughout his career, and he missed 48 games.

Since debuting, Álvarez holds a 162-game average line of .295 with a .978 OPS, 43 home runs and 128 RBI. Those numbers are outrageous, but the big man has only topped 140 games played once.

If Altuve and Álvarez are both hitting top-four in the lineup, the Astros still possess one of the best offenses in baseball. If they aren't, their lineup has enough holes for opposing pitchers to navigate. If Houston gets a fully healthy season out of both, another AL West title and yet another deep playoff run looks incredibly likely.

No. 1: Do Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez bounce back?

No greater storyline surrounds the Astros in 2024 than what happens with Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez. The Josh Hader signing was massive, and the extension of Jose Altuve was a big deal. They could have bolstered their lineup even further, hired a different manager than Espada, and handed the starting catching reigns to Victor Caratini instead of Díaz.

No one question will impact the Astros' fate more than which versions of Javier and Valdez show up. In 2022, a very real case could have been made that Cristian Javier was the best pitcher in the game. Whether he was a starter or reliever, he was totally un-hittable, holding the opposition to a .170 batting average, recording a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.7 SO/9. He started two combined no-hitters, including one in the World Series, and was untouchable in October.

Framber Valdez was just as good, going 17-6 with a 2.81 ERA, starting three complete games, throwing a league best 201.1 innings, and finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young voting.

Neither came close to replicating their 2022 form in 2023. Javier lost his mechanics amidst a battle with fatigue, and finished with a 4.56 ERA. His slider regressed mightily, making his previously dynamic "invisi-ball" fastball much more hittable. Valdez still finished ninth in AL Cy Young voting, largely due to his dominant first half, but in the second half, Valdez imploded.

Over his last 14 starts, Valdez posted a 4.66 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. He suffered multiple break-downs on the mound, throwing at multiple batters, getting ejected from rivalry games, and topping it off with three nightmarish playoff starts.

With the pitch clock being shortened even more, can Valdez get himself settled down when things don't go his way on the mound? Will he trust Yainer Díaz and Victor Caratini catching him in the place of Maldy?

If Houston can get the Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez of 2022 back, they could walk to the World Series. If they can get an ERA between 3.3-3.5 from both and limit the implosions, they should win another AL West title.

If both remain 4+ ERA pitchers, the Astros could be in trouble. If Houston makes any noise at all this year, it will come down to which editions of Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier show up.