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5 potential blockbuster trades involving Framber Valdez
If the Astros wanted to contend for a World Series this year and extend their window of contention, flipping their mercurial ace could be just the way to do so.
Framber Valdez looked like he was en route to becoming an all-time Astros great in 2022. Valdez finished top-five in AL Cy Young voting after setting a record for most consecutive quality starts and finished with a 2.82 ERA.
The postseason was even more kind, as Valdez finished 3-0 in four stars, including the World Series clincher in Game 6.
Big things were expected of Valdez in 2023. While he delivered in the first half, his second half was a nightmare, and just when you thought it couldn't get worse, he imploded in October, finishing with a playoff ERA north of 9.00.
With bans on the shift and new pitch clock rules, can the enigmatic Valdez ever regain what made him so special? Or would the Astros be wise to try to flip him now while his stock is high?
Valdez remains one of the most durable arms in the game, and he comes with two years of team control. If Houston were to move Valdez, they'd likely be able to address multiple areas of need.
It would be a stunning maneuver, but one Dana Brown should absolutely consider.
5 potential blockbuster trades involving Framber Valdez
We just examined what a blockbuster deal for Alex Bregman could look like. Now let's look at five returns Houston could get for their mercurial lefty.
#1 Framber Valdez for Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad
Trading Valdez to the Orioles could easily backfire, as the Astros could be facing a resurgent Framber for years to come in the postseason. But this is a tantalizing deal. Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad would give the Astros two massive bats they are sorely lacking. Kjerstad could platton as a DH with Yordan for the next couple of years, but likely would take over for Kyle Tucker in right when King Tuck walks in free agency.
Kjerstad is phenomenal, but he's likely blocked in Baltimore with so much talent already on the team. The #2 overall pick in 2020 hit .303 with 29 doubles and 21 bombs in the minors last year before making a brief big league debut in September.
And just as Kjerstad is blocked, so is Coby Mayo, who would truly be the prize of the deal. With Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already having made their debuts, and the consensus top prospect in baseball not far behind in Jackson Holliday, where does Mayo play?
Baltimore may have to trade him, and Houston would be wise to pounce if so. Mayo hit 29 bombs with a .974 OPS in 140 minor league games last season. Mayo would be Bregman's heir apparent at third base, but could also split time at first base this season if José Abreu doesn't bounce back.
The Astros are getting Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2024. They have the depth in the rotation to make such a move, and would even be able to sign an insurance arm with the arbitration money they would be coming off of by moving Valdez.
Mayo and Kjerstad worst case would solidify their bench this season, but could very well force their way into every day playing time. They'd be staples of the next era of Astros baseball, and would prolong the window of title contention.
#2 Framber Valdez for Brendan Donovan, Ryan Helsley and Dylan Carlson
The Cardinals are in desperate need of starting pitching. The Astros need depth and bullpen help. The match makes a lot of sense.
Ryan Helsley would be an immediate asset for Houston, giving them a dominant back end of the bullpen arm to pair in leverage innings with Abreu and Pressly. He'd go a long way towards alleviating the loss of Hector Neris. Over 5 seasons, Helsely has a career ERA of 2.83 with a 1.10 WHIP.
He has been especially dominant the last two seasons. In the last 87 games, Helsely holds a 1.69 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and 13 SO/9. Landing a reliever like Helsley would solidify the Astros bullpen as championship caliber again.
Brendan Donovan is a very versatile utility man. Donovan plays 3B, LF and RF all well above average, but he does struggle defensively at 2B. He also can play 1B. As Mauricio Dubón's role in center field has grown, Houston could easily use Donovan as a utility man all over the infield, but he'd likely take over for Alex Bregman in 2025. Donovan is worth 7 DRS at 3B in only 217 career innings there.
In 221 career games, he's hitting .283 with a .779 OPS and 120 OPS+. Those are very solid numbers, and his Statcast metrics scream breakout incoming. Donovan is in the 91st percentile in xBA and 80th percentile in xwOBA. His 96th percentile whiff rate and 91st percentile strikeout rate would actually give the Astros a third baseman eerily similar to Bregman in the future.
And Dylan Carlson would be a great buy low option. The one-time top-10 prospect and third place finisher in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year has struggled in the last two seasons, but all of the tools are still there for a breakout. With the Cardinals deploying so many young options, the path to regular playing time isn't there for Carlson. If Houston can unlock the switch hitter's true potential, their lineup goes to another level.
#3 Framber Valdez for Emmett Sheehan and Josue De Paula
The Astros already stole Yordan Alvarez once from LA. Can they do it again? De Paula is only 18, and spent most of the season playing at A-ball as a 17-year old. He still managed to hit .284 with 46 walks and only 61 strikeouts in 74 games. That level of plate discipline for a teenager is unbelievable.
He broke out in the Dominican Summer League last year, and while he didn't replicate the power numbers this season (only two home runs and 15 doubles), he is still incredibly raw physically with plenty of untapped power left in the tank. He actually has an incredibly similar profile to a young Alvarez, and all of the tools are there for a breakout in the coming years.
One Dodgers club official called De Paula their best international bat of the last decade. He is a long way from reaching his ceiling and has a 2026 ETA, but there is a .300 hitter with 30 home runs looming. His arrival would coincide with taking over for Kyle Tucker as King Tuck hits free agency.
In the meantime, Emmett Sheehan gives the Astros a potential ace to develop alongside Hunter Brown. Sheehan made his big league debut last season, posting a 4.92 ERA over 13 games. Removing from one nightmare start against the future world champion Rangers, he finished with a very respectable 3.97 ERA, including six no-hit innings in his big-league debut.
Sheehan was promoted incredibly quickly after dominating at AA, where he recorded a 1.86 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 14.9 SO/9. He possesses an incredibly high whiff-rate on his fastball, and as he hones his command, could be an absolute monster in the rotation for the long term.
The Dodgers are desperate for veteran starting pitching help, of which Valdez would provide plenty. They'd have to part with two top prospects to do it. Houston could stomach the loss with Garcia and McCullers coming back imminently, and Sheehan would imediately contribute this year. Getting De Paula down the line would be the cherry on top.
#4 Framber Valdez for Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jake Fraley and Rhett Lowder
The Reds are young and very talented. They also have a surplus of position player prospects and are desperate for starting pitching. Framber Valdez would give them a #1 ahead of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott.
Houston gets two young studs and a solid outfielder in return.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand would be an Astros corner infielder of the future, most likely at 1B. In 63 games a a rookie, CES hit .270 with 13 home runs, an .805 OPS and a 113 OPS+. He still has some swing and miss in his game, but he makes loud contact consistently.
Jake Fraley would contribute right away in 2024, filling the Michael Brantley role. He won't have as high of an average as Brantley, but he'd balance the lineup with another lefty and comes with three years of team control.
Over the last two seasons (179 games), Fraley is hitting .257 with 27 home runs and a .794 OPS. While he's likely not starting Game 1 of a playoff series, think about how much better Houston is with Fraley as a pinch-hitter instead of Jon Singleton.
And Rhett Lowder is absolutely nasty. The 21-year old just went #7 overall in the 2023 MLB draft. He hasn't yet made his professional debut, but is coming off of a 15-0 senior season at Wake Forest with a 1.87 ERA.
His changeup in particular is wipeout, and pairs a solid fastball and slider with it. He wouldn't contribute in 2024, but would quickly ascend the system.
The Reds may very well decline this deal, but if Houston can make it happen, they have two franchise cornerstones in CES and Lowder.
#5 Framber Valdez and Jake Meyers for Chris Morel, Matt Shaw and Alexander Canario
We had a similar deal in place when highlighting possible Alex Bregman trades, sending Bregman, Urquidy and Meyers to Chicago for Morel and Shaw. In this instance, Valdez is worth more with his additional year of team control, so he and Meyers fetch Morel and Shaw, as well as the talented but flawed Alexander Canario.
Morel immediately gives the Astros a power threat in the middle of their lineup, while Shaw is a middle infielder of the future. The fast-rising shortstop could find himself in the bigs in a year or two, and could even make Jeremy Peña expendable if his troubles at the plate persist.
Canario debuted last year, playing only six games. He did hit .294 with one double, one triple, and one home run in those six games. Canario hit 37 home runs in 2022 at the AAA level. He has a lot of pop that could play well in Minute Maid.
This deal would likely be more beneficial in the long run than in 2024, but it could end up prolonging Houston's window of title contention.
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