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4 blockbuster potential trades if the Astros decide to trade Alex Bregman
While it feels unfathomable for Houston to trade Alex Bregman, if the Astros were to make such a crazy trade, here are four possibilities.
Could the Astros really do the unthinkable and move off of Alex Bregman? With the window of contention open for at least one more year, surely they won't, but according to recent reports, Houston is at least listening to offers on their superstar third baseman.
Trading a cornerstone like Bregman after the success they've had would be a slap in the face to the fanbase, and honestly to Bregman himself. It's incredibly unlikely, but with as cutthroat as Jim Crane has proven himself to be, anything could be on the table.
If Houston were to trade Bregman, what could they get in return?
4 blockbuster potential trades involving Alex Bregman
Let's take a look at four potential trade packages involving the Astros third baseman. And just to be clear, none of these should happen. If Houston does what is right, they'll give Bregman the extension he deserves and he'll retire as an Astros.
#1: Alex Bregman, Jose Urquidy & Jake Meyers traded to Tampa Bay for Tyler Glasnow and Drew Rasmussen
This trade actually could make a lot of sense. The Rays are rumored to be shopping Isaac Paredes after his breakout campaign, leaving them with an opening at third base. The arrival of Junior Caminero could fill that gap, or the Rays could play Caminero at short where he has played in the minors and start Bregman with him on the left side.
With Wander Franco's future so murky, Tampa Bay could even look to extend Bregman.
Jake Meyers, like Jose Siri before him, would be a Rays reclamation project, and Jose Urquidy would provide much needed depth to a Rays rotation shelled by injury.
Tyler Glasnow and Drew Rasmussen would come back to Houston in exchange. Glasnow gives the Astros a dominant #1 to pair with Verlander and Valdez. Rasmussen is out for the year after having Tommy John, the second of his career, but if he can bounce back like Nathan Eovaldi did in Texas, this would be highway robbery.
Glasnow would be a one-year rental, but an arm like Rasmussen could actually prolong the Astros contention window after both Glasnow and Bregman hit free agency.
Houston would actually save a little bit of money in the deal, and while their offense would regress, their rotation would be lethal. They could choose to take a shot on a Will Wagner or Zach Dezenzo as they have in the past with slept on prospects like Chas McCormick, they could take a flier on a rental like Tim Anderson and play him at third base, or they could acquire a third baseman elsewhere via trade.
#2 Alex Bregman, Hunter Brown and Jake Meyers traded to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes and Sal Frelick
Like the prior deal, the Astros land a rental arm and a promising future piece, but in this deal, they part with a promising arm in Hunter Brown.
Corbin Burnes, like Glasnow, would give the Astros a true ace. Sal Frelick would give them a future cornerstone and could be Kyle Tucker's heir apparent in right field.
Frelick is already an elite defender with a cannon for an arm and well above average sprint speed. He hasn't found his stroke at the big league level yet, hitting .246 with a .692 OPS for Milwaukee, but his 14.6% whiff rate, 16.6% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate are all elite metrics, especially for a hitter so young.
His approach at the plate would fit seamlessly with Houston's pass the baton approach. He's not much of a home run threat, but if he reaches his offensive potential, he could be a Michael Brantley esque high-average doubles machine helping set the table for the Astros offense for years to come.
The Brewers have an abundance of outfield prospects, and are already believed to be talking to top prospect Jackson Chourio about a contract extension before he sets foot in the bigs. Could this make Frelick expendable?
Brown would be a tough loss, but the Astros do get Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2024. A rotation of Burnes, Verlander, Valdez, Javier, McCullers Jr. and Garcia is incredibly formidable, and would keep the Astros as serious title contenders for 2024.
Like the previous offer, they'd need to either promote from within or find a third baseman on the market, but it is appealing to land a rental ace and an outfield cornerstone is quite enticing.
#3 Alex Bregman, José Urquidy and Jake Meyers for Christopher Morel and Matt Shaw
The Cubs are believed to be big spenders this off-season. One could easily see them doling out the type of contract needed to keep Bregman in the Windy City for the foreseeable future. The Cubs got a .249 average and .738 OPS out of their third basemen in 2023, so Bregman would be quite an upgrade.
Coming back to Houston would be the power hitting Christopher Morel and fast-rising phenom prospect Matt Shaw.
Morel can play multiple positions, though he plays none particularly well. What he does bring is absolute light tower power. Morel finished with 26 home runs and an .821 OPS in 107 games for the Cubs. He finished in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage, 92nd in hard hit percentage, 91st in average exit velocity, 85th in xSLG and 71st in xwOBA.
His power stroke from the right side is a match made in heaven at Minute Maid Park.
Shaw is currently the #16 prospect in the game according to the MLB top 100. The 2023 first round pick hit .357 with a 1.018 OPS in 38 games after being drafted. Landing Shaw might take another piece, but he would give the Astros a true replacement for Bregman at third base for years to come.
If Houston decided to re-load for 2025 and beyond, they could likely still make the playoffs in 2024 with the team they have, then be primed to compete for titles in the near future by adding a piece like Shaw to a still fearsome lineup.
#4 Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez to Detroit for Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter and Jackson Jobe
This deal would represent a changing of the guard in the AL. The Astros would be passing on 2024 and conceeding they have no interest in extending Bregman or Valdez. Breggy would reunite with A.J. Hinch and Valdez would get to pitch in the pitcher friendly Comerica Park.
If the Tigers can find a way to move off of Javier Baez contract as they are believed to be attempting to do, they could easily extend both Bregman and Valdez and become powers in the Al Central for the foreseeable future.
If the Astros aren't going to extend Valdez, they should consider moving him. And they should now rather than wait. It may be an unpopular take, but Valdez may never be the same with the new pitch clock rules and shift bans. His stock will never be higher than it is now.
Pairing Bregman and Valdez would land quite a haul, and this would be precisely that.
The Astros meanwhile would land one of the best hitting prospects in the MLB in Colt Keith, a 2023 breakout piece in Kerry Carpenter, and the #52 prospect in the MLB in Jobe.
Keith flat out rakes. He would be a seamless replacement for Bregman. 10 prospects under age 25 posted a .300 average, .380 OBP and .550 slugging percentage. Keith did so as a 21 year old across AA and AAA. Some defensive questions could limit is ceiling, but he'd be a lineup staple for a decade.
Carpenter hit .278 with an .811 OPS in his breakout 2023 campaign, and the numbers would have been even better had he not finished with a dreadful September. He hit 20 home runs on the year, but that number would easily jump going from the cavernous right field in Comerica Park to the short porch in Minute Maid. He'd provide another lefty threat to balance the lineup with Tucker and Alvarez.
Jobe looked great in 16 starts ranging from rookie ball to AA, posting a 2.81 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 11.8 K/9. He has great stuff, and his plus-plus slider make him a #2 in waiting on a contending staff.
It would be a punt on 2024, but the 2025 Astros would look lethal with a lineup consisting of Altuve (assuming he is extended), Alvarez, Carpenter, Diaz, Keith, McCormick and Tucker. They'd still have a dynamite starting rotation with Brown, Garcia, Javier, Jobe, McCullers Jr. and any other additions they make.
It would be an unpopular move across the fanbase, but it would be a move that would take a dwindling championship window and prolong it for years to come.
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