Orioles' Shane Baz trade stuns fans into truth that Astros settled for Mike Burrows

Given the prospects the Houston Astros had to offer this offseason, it wasn't a surprise that they didn't pull off a trade for one of Joe Ryan, Tarik Skubal, or Freddy Peralta. Instead, the Astros landed Mike Burrows from the Pirates as part of a three-team trade that included the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays.

Burrows does check the box of being an arm capable of taking the mound for Houston every five days, and given the multiple years of control, it made sense why Dana Brown felt comfortable parting ways with prospects Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito.

Still, it felt like a little bit of a disappointment. Before trading for Burrows, the Astros were also linked to Rays' starting pitcher Shane Baz. Like Burrows, Baz hasn't exactly put it together at the major league level, but offers a high upside along with years of control. Between the two, Baz seemed like the ideal option, and it seems that was the Astros' thinking until they saw what the Orioles gave up for him.

Astros liked Shane Baz but were never going to match the Orioles' trade offer

If a team is in a bidding war when it comes to trading for a cost-controlled starting pitcher, the Orioles aren't the team to be battling with. While their farm system isn't quite as good as it was a few years ago, they have a number of talented position-player prospects that are sure to entice a team shopping a controllable pitcher.

They proved that in a large way by sending prospect Slater De Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret, and Austin Overn to Tampa Bay, along with a Competitive Balance Round A pick, in exchange for Baz. In other words, two organization top-10 prospects, 1 top-20 prospect, a top-30 prospect, and a comp pick.

Even if Baz made more sense than Burrows for the Astros, he does, there wasn't a scenario where Houston was going to be able to match that deal.

In a world where the Astros are inching closer to a reset after 2026, it wouldn't have been logical to give up that much for Baz, especially when he would be arriving with his question marks. Burrows is far from a sure thing, but at least his arrival didn't deplete the Astros' farm system.