Astros Winter Meetings plans begin to take shape as trade rumor surfaces

At the start of the Winter Meetings, it was clear that the Houston Astros were going to need to look for creativity with whatever move they tried to make, and that could lead down a path toward a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Astros are still looking to add an established starting pitcher, and The Athletic's Chandler Rome (subscription required) reports that they have discussed the framework of a trade for Rays' starting pitcher Shane Baz.

With Rome reminding Astros fans with the obvious in saying that Houston's ideology, and 2026 payroll outlook, likely takes them out of the market for the starting pitchers at the top of the free-agent market, Baz earning $3.1 million in 2026 and under team control through 2028 would be right up Houston's wheelhouse.

Rome does add that the Astros and Rays are not believed to be close to a trade, and there is still some skepticism that Tampa Bay will actually move the 26-year-old starting pitcher.

Given the Astros' reality, Shane Baz would be a welcome trade target this offseason.

A former first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017, Baz very much remains a projection. Undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022, 2024 was his first extended runway at the Major League level, posting an ERA of 3.06 in a tick over 79 innings pitched while striking out 21.6% of the hitters he faced.

2025 was his first full season in the majors, posting an ERA of 4.87 while striking out nearly 25% of the hitters he faced. The underlying metrics also suggest that the Rays' defense did him no favors, considering he had an xERA of 3.85 and a FIP of 3.88.

With their pitching infrastructure, the Astros are not strangers to turning reclamation projects into success stories. It's been brief, but Baz, when healthy, has flashed the potential of being a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. It's not the sure thing, like bringing Framber Valdez back would represent, but it feels like the gamble the Astros should be willing to take. If it pays off, they then have their next ace to put next to Hunter Brown and lead the rotation.

Also, if we're being honest, banking on Baz feels like a better play than expecting Ryan Weiss or Nate Pearson to turn into gems. We'll see if this rumor takes a more defined shape as the Winter Meetings progress, but it's certainly an encouraging sign that Dana Brown and Co. aren't just being complacent.