One look at this former top pick’s collapse could force Astros into old trade tactics

With each passing day, it would appear that the Houston Astros are distinguishing themselves from the rest of the AL West. Houston has taken full advantage of the Seattle Mariners' slump, and as of June 13, is the only team in the division with a record better than .500.

While Houston has been embracing a youth movement, their eyes have always been on trying to compete in 2025 while working in the youngsters and setting the foundation for the future. As the season has gone on, they've shown that they are rising above some early doldrums and look to be successfully threading the needle between re-tooling and making some noise in a weak American League.

Still, the team is not without its flaws. The starting rotation has a brilliant one-two punch with Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez leading the way, but lacks an arm or two behind the pair of aces. The lineup hasn't always looked formidable and has been lacking some pop from the left side, with reinforcements beyond the return of Yordan Alvarez needed.

Those specific needs, combined with their position as the leaders of the AL West, may have Houston looking at some past strategies as a means to solidify their status as contenders. Moreover, former top prospect Drew Gilbert's struggles could further motivate them to pivot back to their old ways at the deadline.

Former Astros top prospect Drew Gilbert has fallen flat, giving Houston motivation to sell high on other young assets

When the Houston Astros traded Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford to reacquire Justin Verlander at the 2023 deadline, Gilbert was the club's top prospect and firmly entrenched in the top 100 list. It seemed a high price to pay for an aging starter, and while Verlander showed signs of Father Time slowing him down, he was terrific down the stretch for the Astros with a 3.31 ERA post-trade.

Gilbert was adjusting to life in Double-A at the time of the trade, and having some struggles getting acclimated with a .241/.342/.371 line before being traded. While he did turn it on with the Mets for the rest of the 2023 season, he has since struggled mightily.

The former Astros top prospect slashed just .215/.313/.393 once he arrived at Triple-A in 2024 while being limited by a hamstring injury. So far through 47 games while repeating that level this season, he's hit just .207/.325/.345.

Seeing how Gilbert has struggled after reaching the upper levels of the minors could convince the Astros to make similar moves at this year's deadline. While the team is bought in on infusing the roster with youth long term, they also have eyes on competing in 2025, and parting with a talented youngster who is a ways away from making the big league club for help today could make sense.

That means top prospects at or near the big league level like Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, and Miguel Ullola are off the table. However, there are some younger players at the lower levels who rank highly enough to fetch a quality MLB piece while also showing signs they may follow in Gilbert's path.

Luis Baez, the Astros' No. 10 prospect, has only 23 games of experience at Double-A, but the 21-year-old has struggled mightily at that level. Infielder Chase Jaworsky is another candidate. The 20-year-old is still very raw, but hasn't yet distinguished himself in Hi-A despite his talents.

Houston could also take bigger gambles, dangling last year's first-round pick and their No. 3 overall prospect, Walker Janek, or No. 5 overall prospect starting pitcher Anderson Brito at the deadline. Both players have performed well at high-A; however, they're a long way away from making a big league impact and could be candidates to stall at the upper levels like Glibert.

The balancing act for Houston is tough. On one hand, the minor league system as a whole needs an infusion of talent, meaning trading valuable pieces could further set them back. However, the opportunity to vault themselves into true contender status in 2025 is there for the taking. With the decisions they made in the offseason, this is the bed that they've made, and doing nothing is not an option.

If Houston has an inkling that one of these talented youngsters has some risk, they'd be best served dipping into their old bag of tricks to best position themselves for a playoff push, while holding on to the top-end talent that's knocking on the door of the big league roster. Threading that needle won't be easy, but it is necessary given the position the club has put themselves in.

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