Mike Burrows’ turnaround on rehab assignment may come too late for the Astros in 2026

The Houston Astros' starting rotation has been largely disappointing lately. Since the start of July, Peter Lambert is the only starter with more than 15 innings with an ERA under 4.00. As a whole, Houston's starters have a 5.61 ERA in 40 games, while allowing a .767 OPS.

It's a very unfortunate time for the Astros rotation to be scuffling this much. While Houston still holds a lead in the AL West, it is only by one game, but it could be much more. The AL West has been very uncompetitive this season, and since July 1, the Astros are the only team with a winning percentage over .500 (21-19). They could have used this stretch to take a commanding lead in the division.

Part of the struggles in the rotation have been the lack of consistency. Houston has had nine different starters (not including the game using an opener) since July 1; only two have made more than five starts. Four of their starts have a negative fWAR since July 1.

Is Mike Burrows that answer to all of Houston's pitching woes?

Part of that inconsistency has been injuries, including the injury to Mike Burrows. The 26-year-old has been on the IL since July 15 with elbow neuritis in his throwing arm. While Burrows hasn't been the pitcher the Astros had hoped for when they acquired him in a three-team trade over the offseason, he would take the ball every turn through the rotation. The righty only went less than 5.0 innings twice in a game he started all season. That is a skill that is very underrated and helps keep a bullpen fresh.

Luckily for the Astros, Burrows' return may be coming sooner rather than later. He made his second rehab outing on Thursday for Triple-A Sugar Land, a 4 2/3 inning scoreless performance, where he allowed just one hit, struck out five, and walked two. Not only was that his second scoreless rehab start, but Burrows averaged 95.7 mph in his fastball, slightly above his 95.0 season average in the majors this season.

The question now is: is it too little too late? The Astros have had all season to give themselves any advantage in the division or wild card races. The return of Burrows may help a little, but Houston is about to go into its hardest stretch of the rest of the season. After the off day on Monday, they will play 13 straight games, which includes six in New York against the Yankees and then Mets, and then come home for four with the White Sox and three with the Diamondbacks.

Burrows' return will provide a little more stability in the rotation, but the burden is not going to just fall on his shoulders. If the Stros want to secure their spot in October, it is going to have to come from the entire pitching staff.

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