Astros dealing with troubling Hunter Brown trend at worst possible time

Who would have thought in mid-August that Peter Lambert would be the Houston Astros' best and most consistent starting pitcher? Well, here we are, and that is very much the case. The club's bets on reclamation starters went bust. The big dice roll on Tatsuya Imai has come up snake eyes. And the injury returns of Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski haven't provided the boost they were hoping for.

The Astros have sent Blanco down to Sugar Land after five games and a 7.71 ERA. The reality of the situation is that Houston placing a lot of weight on Hunter Brown's shoulders, and the ace is caving under the weight, leaving the rotation in shambles.

Brown started the season right where he left off in 2025 when he was the third-place runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting. He posted a 1.78 ERA through the end of June, though his right shoulder strain ate a large chunk in the middle of that span and limited him to just five starts. Since July 1, he's started eight games and compiled a 4.78 ERA.

Throughout the entire season, Brown's fastball command has been an issue, and it's been even worse of late. Overall, he's landing his four-seamers in the zone just 44.1% of the time. During his last outing on August 16 against the Mariners, only three of the 23 heaters Brown threw went down as a called strike or a whiff.

Astros could see their playoff hopes slip away if Hunter Brown can't get his fastball right

Without the control of his fastball, Brown is walking batters at an egregious 13.7% clip. It's left his other offerings vulnerable, too, since batters don't need to worry about the heater. It's resulted in a rising home run rate that sits at 1.18 HR/9 on the year, but a 1.45 HR/9 since July 1.

The walks are leading to higher pitch counts and shorter outings. This starts a chain reaction where the bullpen gets taxed, and the rest of the rotation provides no relief. The bullpen has been the biggest catalyst for the Astros turning around their 2026 campaign.

Josh Hader's return from the IL was a big boost, and since June 1, Houston has the third-best bullpen ERA, coming in at 2.88. That won't last, however, if the relievers are constantly getting burnt out. As of now, the Astros don't even know who their fifth starter will be. If Brown isn't being efficient, eating innings, and dominating opponents, the trickle-down effect could be deadly. The Astros are in first place in the AL West, but that's just as much a byproduct of their resurgence as it is of the ineptitude present within the division.

The Mariners went into a tailspin after the Rangers dealt them three losses in four games at the end of July. The Rangers immediately went into a tailspin of their own as their bats went silent, and they sustained key injuries to players like Nathan Eovaldi and Josh Jung. With that said, those two clubs are still lurking in the race, and the wild card is chock full of hopefuls wading through the American League's mediocrity. At any point, Texas or Seattle could heat up again.

The truth of the matter is that the AL West might be the worst division in the field of lesser contenders present in the American League. There might not be a second team in the division to punch an October ticket, given the fact that there are four contenders in the AL East and another three vying for playoff spots in the AL Central. That could mean it's the division crown or bust for the Astros. In order to secure that, they'll need their ace to pitch like an ace.

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