Astros backed themselves into dreadful reality Dana Brown could have avoided

The Houston Astros won a series in San Francisco, though it wasn’t pretty, to remain in first place in the AL West. They were bailed out by the Giants' defense and needed a bullpen game just to get there in the first place. Wins are wins, so whatever, but that doesn’t mean that all wins give you a lot of confidence.

Two supposed members of the Astros’ rotation, Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier, don’t appear to be part of the rotation plans, at least in the short-term. Blanco was in the bullpen as a long reliever, while Javier’s turn is being skipped against the Seattle Mariners. This isn’t a workload plan. It’s an organization admitting that the rotation they believed in so much that they didn't just not acquire another starter but traded one away isn’t good enough.

Dana Brown's trade deadline math never added up

At this point, it’s beating a dead horse, but at the same time, this horse can’t be beaten enough. The Astros went into the deadline with a bad rotation, carrying one of the highest ERAs in baseball. They came out of it thinner. Spencer Arrighetti wasn’t pitching especially well, and he’s currently on the IL, but he’s a cost-controlled starter who won AL Pitcher of the Month in May. No, Lance McCullers Jr. wasn’t doing anything for them, but a team in contention got back Daulton Varsho for rotation depth that they desperately needed.

Sure, Varsho fills a need in center field, but the price was a lot, given the other needs within this organization. This isn’t a reaction to Javier and Blanco’s struggles. It was a full-on belief at the time. The Astros solved a secondary need while making a primary need even worse. And every time Javier or Blanco doesn’t take the ball every fifth day, for whatever reason, the case gets stronger.

There were other misses. Trevor Larnach would have solved a more pressing offensive need, but reports say ownership vetoed a deal to send Bryan Abreu for him. They passed on rotation help that went elsewhere. The Brewers acquired Dustin May (and JoJo Romero) while the Guardians added Foster Griffin in deals that the Astros could have likely matched. None of it will matter if they win in October, but they didn’t help themselves to do that when they could have. 

It was likely foolish in the first place to have such a strong belief that Blanco and Javier would come back from injuries pitching well, but the Astros treated their returns as the fix rather than a bonus. Blanco has only completed five innings once in four starts back. Javier has bounced a bit between the rotation and the bullpen since his return, only going back to starting after Tatsuya Imai imploded. And now it appears he’s out of the rotation again. The only other alternative was to hope that Ethan Pecko or Bryce Mayer could handle a playoff race. It really shows how dire this situation is for them.

The one good thing going is that it’s not Peter Lambert’s fault. But there’s a pretty big worry coming for him. He’s now thrown 113.2 innings with a 3.09 ERA, but the last time he exceeded the 124.1 innings he threw last season was in 2018, when he threw 148 between AA and AAA. He threw 90.1 innings in 2024, 109 innings in 2023, 8.2 in 2022, and just 16 in 2021. The Astros need him to start every fifth day, but every start pushes him closer to a place his arm hasn’t been in eight years. Joe Espada doesn’t have the luxury to skip his starts, with every game so important.

So what’s next? It leaves the bullpen absorbing the load. Now, that bullpen has been fantastic for quite some time now. After a rough start to the year, the Astros were second in baseball in bullpen ERA since May 1 through play on Wednesday. Josh Hader has been ridiculous. Alimber Santa has been great. Steven Okert has been dominant. Abreu has been outstanding. AJ Blubaugh has been there. But bullpens thrive on not being overworked, so there will be challenges ahead. 

The division is bad enough and the rest of the season is light enough that the Astros can survive this stretch. But surviving this stretch and winning three or four series in October are not the same thing. Every time they face an issue in the rotation, it will be a reminder that Dana Brown could have fixed this but chose to look the other way.

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