Luis Garcia’s impending Astros return still comes with a worrisome twist 

For the first time all year, the Houston Astros have reinforcements on their way to their bullpen. While their rotation has been buoyed by strong showings from Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez this year, they haven’t gotten much production from the spots behind them in the rotation due to a variety of injuries. 

While their rotation has been buoyed by strong showings from Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez this year, they haven’t gotten much production from the spots behind them in the rotation due to a variety of injuries. 

But that finally started to turn recently due to the returns of Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti from the injured list along with the impending return of Luis Garcia. While Garcia struck out six in his rehab outing at Triple-A, there’s still some concern about his ability to help the Astros this year. 

Luis Garcia’s velocity drop is genuine cause for concern 

Garcia’s outing on Thursday marked his seventh rehab appearance this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2023. He recorded six strikeouts and allowed one run on six hits and one walk in 4 2/3 innings. 

At face value, those are great stats, and the kind of production the Astros would die for from the back of their rotation. Unfortunately, there is a bit more nuance to the story than that.

“A drop in velocity remains a concern for Garcia, who threw four scoreless innings for the Space Cowboys on Aug. 7 and topped out at 92.5 mph,’” wrote MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. “He reached 94.7 mph on his fastball on Wednesday, but the velocity remained markedly lower on his cutter, curveball, sweeper and changeup when compared to pre-injury averages.”

Needless to say, that’s not a great sign, especially considering Garcia’s injury history. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023, he began a minor league rehab assignment last June but was shut down two months later due to an arm issue. He also was shut down earlier this year with right elbow soreness before beginning to build himself back up near the end of spring training. 

This is the closest Garcia’s gotten to making a big league return, and the Astros would prefer that he look more like the version of him that helped lead the team to a World Series championship in 2022. 

If the Astros do choose to move forward with Garcia in their rotation, he’d likely take Jason Alexander’s spot, who has surprisingly held his own (2.56 ERA in 31 2/3 innings). While he’d be joining an Astros’ team that has some uncertainty in its bullpen due to Josh Hader’s injury, the early returns from the familiar faces in the rotation have been encouraging. 

Javier looked solid in his return to the Astros’ rotation when he allowed two runs over five innings in a win over the Red Sox, while Arrighetti also allowed two runs in five innings in his start against Boston after getting roughed up in his return from the injured list. 

The Astros are going to need all hands on deck as they try to hold onto a playoff spot in the cutthroat American League, and the addition of Garcia would undoubtedly help that. We’ll just have to wait and see what version of him we’re getting.

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