Latest Framber Valdez prediction is absolutely wild on multiple fronts

With the season-long expectation being that Framber Valdez was headed toward greener pastures this offseason, it's no surprise that Valdez turning down the Astros' qualifying offer feels like a farewell. The Astros aren't expected to be at the forefront of Valdez's sweepstakes this offseason, and a shocking prediction provides the reason why.

Working through their latest round of free agency predictions, Bleacher Report has Valdez landing a six-year, $200MM deal. Valdez is viewed as the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market this offseason, but the cross-up incident with Cesar Salazar and high ground ball rate could be reason enough for his market to have a ceiling. On top of all of that, Valdez is 32 years old with only so many "prime" years left.

Given all of those factors, it feels like a reach to expect the former Astros' ace to land a deal worth $200MM. That wasn't the only surprise element to Bleacher Report's prediction, as the team they have handing out that deal is the Baltimore Orioles of all teams.

Bleacher Report's wild Framber Valdez prediction proves the Astros were smart to let him walk

With the state of the Astros' roster and payroll, the last thing they need to be doing is paying Valdez a heavy nine figure deal. Even if the Astros had the payroll space, and they don't, going after a starting pitcher with a higher ceiling, like Dylan Cease or Tatsuya Imai, would have been the better gamble.

Now, Valdez signing with the Orioles would be equally as surprising. Since former Astros' exec Mike Elias took over the Orioles' front office, they haven't been inclined to spend at the top of the market. In fact, their deal with Tyler O'Neill last offseason was the only time they have signed a free agent to a multi-year deal under Elias' watch. Considering how awful that contract has aged, it's hard to believe they would fork over that type of cabbage for Valdez.

As it stands, the Astros will gain a draft pick once Valdez signs elsewhere, but it remains to be seen if they have much of a plan to replace him. The trade of Mauricio Dubón earlier this week confirms the team is going to be mindful about its spending, and that could lead to a discouraging offseason for the Astros.