Lance McCullers Jr.’s latest dud a reminder of Astros’ gross miscalculation

The Houston Astros possess the best one-two punch in baseball atop their rotation in Cy Young hopeful Hunter Brown and the consistently fantastic Framber Valdez. Beyond those two aces, however, lie a bunch of gambles and dart throws, with the club hoping to find at least one who can stick.

To be fair, the Astros' rotation has been ravaged by injury, with Spencer Arrighetti nearing a return, but missing the majority of the season so far, and both Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco being lost to Tommy John surgery.

Let's be clear though, while arms like Arrighetti and Wesneski have potential, and Blanco has been serviceable in stretches, none of these hurlers are proven rotation members. That means the Astros have been relying a lot on the return to form of a once-up-and-coming starter who had top-of-the-rotation potential before injuries derailed his career.

Betting big on Lance McCullers Jr., a pitcher who, prior to this season, hadn't taken the mound since 2022 due to injuries and a litany of complications and setbacks in his path back to the big leagues, was a serious roll of the dice. After his latest blow-up, it appears to be one that is not paying off.

Astros have grossly overestimated what Lance McCullers Jr can provide after his latest dud

Houston put together a solid week, largely thanks to their pitching staff, taking on a pair of NL juggernauts. After sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game set in which Houston scored just five total runs and allowed only one, they took two of three from the Chicago Cubs to close out the week 5-1.

The lone loss came in McCullers Jr.'s start when the 31-year-old righty lasted just 3.1 innings, giving up eight earned runs, seven hits, four walks, and serving up three taters in the process. Through eight starts this season, the former All-Star now owns a 6.62 ERA and has been worth -0.1 fWAR.

These sorts of blowups have become common place for McCullers Jr. Only three times has he lasted five innings or more on the year, with only one outing, June 3's six-inning shutout performance against the pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates looking truly dominant.

The Astros' insistence on staying below the luxury tax line, regardless of what owner Jim Crane might tell you, has left the middle and back of the rotation in this state. Losing three-fifths of your starters is a tough pill to swallow for any team, but when those guys were borderline rotation pieces to begin with, it moves everyone up a peg too far.

Houston has seen that the situation is dicey with Ryan Gusto. Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter have shown flashes of being serviceable pieces, but the Astros will need to see more. Until those two truly prove themselves, a lot of pressure wiill be squarely on McCullers Jr.'s shoulders, and he's proven he's not up for that task.

As a result, Houston will need to prioritize adding another quality arm to anchor the starting rotation behind Brown and Valdez at the trade deadline, while also hoping a pair of these spare parts can continue to improve and solidify the back end. If they fail in this endeavor, they'll quickly find themselves exposed once they go up against the other top AL contenders with everything on the line in October.

More Astros News from Climbing Tal's Hill