Juan Soto’s insane contract aspirations could play into Astros' hands

Sorry, Astros fans, but the likelihood that Houston signs Juan Soto this winter is basically zero. Owner Jim Crane has never once hinted that he has the appetite for the type of contract it's going to require to land Soto, and the Houston front office is already talking about needing to be creative to cover their current vacancies. The amount of roster and payroll gymnastics needed to make Soto an offer that Scott Boras wouldn't laugh at is just not feasible.

However, that doesn't mean that the Soto sweepstakes won't impact the Astros' offseason plans. As we saw last offseason with Shohei Ohtani (along with Yoshinobu Yamamoto), free agent markets can freeze until the top names who are commanding top-dollar find a new team.

With rumors already circulating that Soto is seeking a non-deferred deal in excess of $700 million, it isn't crazy to think we could see the same thing happen this offseason. Assuming Soto's free agency lingers into the later months of the 2024-25 offseason, such a scenario could play into the Astros' favor.

Juan Soto sweepstakes could create favorable offseason market for the Astros

We'll start with the obvious; any team that hands Soto a $700 million deal is basically putting all of their chips on him for the foreseeable future, and in doing so, assumes a ton of risk. The teams who appear to be the favorites for his services include the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Philadelphia Phillies. The winning team for Soto's services will likely take themselves out of future signings, both this offseason and into the future.

The short-term benefits for Houston are real. As painful as it is to admit, the Astros are not likely to make a big move this offseason. However, if top competitors like the Yankees are forced to wait out Soto's market, and other teams in need of lesser bats in a frozen market (like the Seattle Mariners) can't move with purpose early in the offseason, Houston could be the beneficiaries from the chaos.

The one wrinkle to this idea is the future of Alex Bregman. Potential landing spots for Bregman (like the Yankees) may come off the table and giving the Astros a stronger case, assuming they can sell Bregman on their sustainability. The flip side is that the Astros attempts to reunite with Bregman will likely be slowed, as Boras may want to make sure whoever doesn't sign Soto could nab Bregman as a consolation prize.

There are a lot of moving parts this offseason and it is difficult to predict exactly how everything will play out. However, it is clear that everything starts with Soto right now, and for a team like the Astros who will be limited this offseason, that isn't a bad thing.

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