Josh Hader's resurgence doesn't change Astros conversation surrounding his contract

When Josh Hader was on the injured list, the Houston Astros' bullpen was in a rough state. Not only was their depth being tested by Houston's rotation issues, but it was clear that Bryan Abreu was not acclimating to the increased responsibility as well as the Astros had hoped he would. Thankfully, Hader's return has gone very well, although it has raised some uncomfortable truths about his contract.

Since returning on June 3, Hader has been exceptional. Across his 17 appearances, he has only given up two earned runs in 15.1 innings of work with 25 strikeouts against just eight walks. In short, he has been exactly what Houston wanted him to be when they signed him.

There is a problem, though. Even with Hader performing at a high level, there just doesn't seem to be any way that he will be "worth" what the Astros are paying him.

Josh Hader's contract with Astros is a cautionary tale about giving huge contracts to relievers

This is not a new concern. When Hader battled injuries and/or inconsistency in the previous two seasons, there were concerns that he wouldn't live up to his five-year, $95 million contract. However, those concerns stemmed from Hader being hurt and/or being ineffective. Right now, Hader has been great, so what gives?

Well, one way to look at it is to look at Fangraphs' Dollars per fWAR metric, which basically takes what WAR is worth on the open free agent market and converts said players' fWAR into a dollar value. While this is far from a perfect method, it is pretty telling when you look at Hader.

Since the start of the 2024 season, Hader has been worth 2.6 fWAR. Not great, but perfectly fine for a reliever that has missed some time with injuries. By the $/WAR metric, that has meant that Hader has been "worth" $21 million total so far with Houston. To illustrate the point further, Hader has been getting paid $19 million PER YEAR over the same time span.

There are years where Hader has been worth what he is getting paid right now. In 2018 with the Brewers, Hader gave Milwaukee $20.9 million worth of value. In 2021, he was worth $20.7 million. Beyond those two seasons, Hader hasn't been worth that kind of money despite most reasonable people agreeing that he has been among the best relievers in baseball for years.

So what is the takeaway here? Well, some will argue that this measure will always undervalue bullpen arms and the market is what the market says it should be. That said, it is also true that even the best relievers still only throw 60-70 innings a year, and that is only if they stay healthy, which, well, they often don't. It is true that no one held a gun to Houston's head and made them pay Hader his asking price, and that is true of any number of high-priced relievers. However, that doesn't mean it is a good idea.

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