Is MLB initiative driving force behind Astros selecting Cam Smith over Zach Dezenzo?

Unless you just haven't followed the Houston Astros at all this year, you're undoubtedly aware of how top prospect Cam Smith took over spring training by storm. Despite being less than a year ago, Smith had defied all expectations since coming over in the Kyle Tucker trade, and now seems to have the inside track for an Opening Day roster spot.

However, Smith isn't the only young hitter that has had a strong spring training. Zach Dezenzo has also performed quite well. In fact, there is a case to be made for picking Dezenzo over Smith as with the former already on the 40-man roster. Dezenzo also has significantly more experience, and it would allow the Astros to give Smith playing time in the outfield in the minor leagues before calling him up.

But depsite all that, at the moment, Smith is more likely to make the Opening Day roster. To fully understand why, one needs to understand the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) and how it could be influencing the Astros' decision-making.

Is MLB's Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) the driving force behind the Astros selecting Cam Smith over Zach Dezenzo?

Added during the last collective bargaining agreement negotiations, the PPI was created with the goal of encouraging teams to carry younger players on their Opening Day rosters as opposed to holding them in the minors in order to gain an extra year of service time. Some teams have taken advantage of this incentive, while others seem perfectly content to still manipulate service time.

Using Smith as an example, once a player is added to the Opening Day roster or within two weeks of the start of the season, they become PPI eligible. If Smith were to win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top 3 of AL MVP voting, Houston would receive an extra draft pick after the first round.

Importantly, Smith does not have to do this in 2025. Even if Smith misses out this season, he could still earn the Astros a pick the first time he finishes in the top 3 of MVP voting. This is a one-time bonus only given teams in order to encourage quick promotions.

Dezenzo (who's not considered a top-100 prospect) is not PPI eligible. The Astros could easily be using Smith's PPI eligibility as a factor for their roster decision. It isn't a certainty that Smith will ever earn Houston a bonus pick, but he does have the upside to pull it off. When looking at two players who performed similarly down in camp, that could definitely be nudging the Astros in Smith's direction.

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