Hunter Brown situation all but demands Astros act quickly with this young arm

The emergence of Hunter Brown as one of the game's preeminent aces was one of the brightest silver linings in an otherwise disappointing 2025 season. However, like most things related to the Houston Astros these days, even success cuts both ways.

According to Astros Insider Chandler Rome, Brown has heard nothing from the Astros about a contract extension, and after a Cy Young-caliber season, it's probably too late for Houston to lock him up anyway, at least, not at a team-friendly rate.

The club has to be kicking itself for missing the boat. After some struggles in his first big league season in 2023, the right-hander began turning the corner in 2024. That would have been the last chance to lock in something of a discount.

Now the Astros have to consider whether or not they want to repeat history and gamble on a talented but unproven arm in Spencer Arrighetti.

Hunter Brown's breakout should up the pressure on the Astros not to miss the boat again and sign Spencer Arrighetti to a team-friendly extension

Arrighetti was just one of many injured Astros, with a fractured right thumb and then, later, right elbow inflammation limiting his second big league season to just seven disappointing starts. That was a major letdown after a rookie campaign that had its ups and downs, but showed real promise.

In 2024, Arrighetti logged 145 innings, posting a 4.53 ERA. His 27.1% strikeout rate was a 79th percentile performance, but with that came too many walks, coming in at 10.3%. Another big problem was the long ball, with the former top prospect posting 1.30 HR/9. Those numbers were very similar to Brown's rookie campaign in 2023, when he struck out 26.8% of hitters while surrendering 1.50 HR/9.

Houston is a big believer in the sinker, believing the pitch is what unlocked Brown's Cy Young form by allowing him to better neutralize right-handed hitters. In 2023, Brown didn't utilize the pitch and gave up an .839 OPS against righties. The following year, he introduced the pitch to his repertoire, throwing it 18% of the time (36% against righties), and saw same-handed batters have less success with a .716 OPS. Last season, he threw it even more, amping up its total utilization to 23% (38% against righties) and had even more success with them, posting a .572 OPS.

The pitch allowed Brown to keep the ball in the yard more frequently, yielding just 0.83 HR/9 last year.

It's a transition Houston has started with Arrighetti, whose deep arsenal didn't feature a sinker in 2024, when he allowed a .778 OPS against righties. There's a lot of noise in the small sample from 2025, but he did start throwing the pitch 9% of the time (18% of the time against right-handed bats), and saw same-handed opponents' OPS just .646 against him.

The advanced metrics show that Arrighetti has some very promising tools to work with, and if he can stay healthy and integrate the sinker like Brown did to keep the homers down and take care of righties, he could be the next breakout star. With so much uncertainty surrounding the future of Houston's rotation, the club would be wise to get ahead of the curve and extend him on the cheap before it's too late.