How Astros' failed 2024 pitching plan could reshape Houston's offseason plans

The Houston Astros have an abundance of starting pitchers on the as-yet-untouched roster entering the offseason. Despite losing Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi to free agency, Houston has a ton of depth up and down their rotation.

But that was the same sentiment that the Astros had last winter. Houston entered the 2023-24 offseason with top prospects like Hunter Brown, Jake Bloss, and Spencer Arrighetti ready to supplement a rotation of Verlander, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Christian Javier. The Astros were also counting on the impending returns of Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr.

But that's not how things unfolded. Once spring training began, Houston lost Verlander and Urquidy to injury. After making just five and seven starts, respectively, J.P. France and Javier were sidelined with an injuries as well. Houston's biggest strength suddenly became their biggest weakness.

Lance McCullers Jr. & Luis Garcia never made it back to the Astros roster in 2024

Worse yet, those impending returns never happened. Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2023, but was unable to to return to the hill after setbacks dominated his rehab. McCullers, who hasn't pitched since 2022, underwent flexor tendon surgery in June of 2023, and his rehab was cut short this past summer.

With that in mind, Houston cannot go into this offseason with the same type of mentality. While every single Astros fan would love to believe that the trio of Javier, France, and Urquidy will return to form after having their 2024 campaigns halted by injuries, that's wishful thinking; besides, Urquidy has already been outrighted off the roster. Furthermore, how can Houston even consider Garcia or McCullers to be reliable options heading into next season having not even made it onto the diamond last year?

The Astros should approach this offseason with the understanding that Valdez and Brown are the team's top two arms in the rotation. Ronel Blanco can then be slotted in as a middle-of-the-rotation arm, but that's where it stops. So while Astros GM Dana Brown loves to tout his club's pitching depth, it doesn't mean anything if more than half the staff is returning from serious injury.

So much of fans' attention at the moment is focused on Alex Bregman's contract talks with the Astros, but if Houston fails to address the rotation, they'll be in no better shape than they were in 2024.

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