Framber Valdez contract projection shows why Astros will shy away from extension

Rather than offer Kyle Tucker a contract extension this past winter, the Houston Astros decided to trade him to the Cubs. And while Framber Valdez's name was tossed about in trade discussions during the offseason, the Astros have no intention of cutting ties with their All-Star lefty ahead of the 2025 season.

But with Valdez ticketed for free agency after the upcoming season, many Astros fans are curious why talks regarding a contract extension between Houston's front office and their ace haven't gained any traction.

The Athletic's most recent contract extension projection (subscription required), revealed one of the biggest reasons why the Astros may be hesitant to sign Valdez to a long-term contract extension.

Framber Valdez contract projection shows why Astros will shy away from extension

Tim Britton of The Athletic broke down the possible contract extensions for three of the top arms —Valdez, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zach Gallen, and San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease — heading into free agency after the 2025 season. While Valdez's five-year, $134 million contract extension was more reasonable than the other two, there are numerous red flags.

First and foremost is Valdez's age. At 31, how willing should the Astros be to hand over a deal worth nearly $27 million annually knowing they'll be paying that until Valdez is 36 years old? While pitchers like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and former Astros starter Justin Verlander have been able to turn back the clock, the track record of pitchers having sustained success after age 35 is not great.

There's also the contract comp that Britton used to come up with the five-year, $134 million figure. This projection is based on the six-year, $130 million deal Johnny Cueto signed with the San Francisco Giants in 2016, but is reduced from six years to the four free-agent years that would be included in such a deal.

In Cueto's first season with the Giants, he went to the All-Star Game, finished sixth in the Cy Young race, posted an impressive 2.79 ERA and was worth 5.5 bWAR. But in five season following Cueto's debut in the Bay Area, he averaged just 14 starts per season, posted a 4.38 ERA, and was worth a combined 4.4 bWAR.

The idea of keeping Valdez in the rotation over the next half-decade, while intriguing, is not a wise investment if the above projection is going to be the actual cost. If Houston is going to invest that type of money, they'd be better off extending Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, or another member of the team's young core.

While it may be difficult hear, the Astros best case scenario is to ride with Valdez in 2025 and collect a compensatory draft pick the following offseason after extending a qualifying offer. With Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and the contigent of injury-plagued starters returning, Valdez may become expendable next winter.

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