Familiar problem could torpedo Astros’ six-man rotation plans before they begin

News that the Houston Astros plan to use a six-man rotation to start the 2026 campaign seems prudent at first glance. The remade group of starters is one part potential and one part uncertainty. As the Astros figure out who is ready for a leap and who is lagging behind, it makes sense to give as many guys as possible an opportunity.

An added bonus is that utilizing such a structure will help prized import Tatsuya Imai remain on the same kind of schedule he as accustomed to in Japan. Finally, extra rest for everybody could help avoid injuries, something that is especially important for the likes of Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier, who have had serious injury battles in recent years.

But, as Chandler Rome points out in is Astros mailbag column, it's not all sunshine and rainbows. Carrying the extra starter means one less bullpen arm, and that strain could take a toll on the Houston's relief corps.

The Astros' plans for a six-man rotation could have dire consequences for the bullpen

The Astros have traditionally leaned hard on their bullpen, especially with uncertainty and poor performance in the back-end of the rotation in recent years. We could see the same in 2026. Imai is exciting, but a complete unknown, and if he struggles, it could tax the bullpen. Ditto for Ryan Weiss. Mike Burrows hasn't logged a ton of innings in a single season, either in the minors or the majors, and regular implosions from McCullers Jr. and Javier would provide further stress.

To make matters worse, superstar closer Josh Hader is coming off a shoulder strain that ended his 2025 campaign prematurely. From opening day through Hader's last appearance on August 8, Houston's bullpen was second in the majors with a 3.30 ERA. From August 9 through the end of the season, the unit's ERA ballooned to 4.62 and ranked 23rd in the league. If that doesn't shine a light on how important Hader is, nothing will.

The way to solve this issue is to be able to cycle arms through the bullpen, yo-yoing relievers back-and-forth from Triple-A. Unfortunately, Houston's roster construction doesn't allow for that. Rule 5 pick Roddery Muñoz can't be sent down without being offered back to the Reds, and with the exception of lefty Bryan King, the rest of the Astros' projected opening day bullpen is out of options.

All of this is to say that the Astros are playing with fire. By running a six-man rotation, they risk not only injury but diminished performance from a perceived strength as the individual relievers get worn down under the weight of increased workloads.

This may work for a short period of time, but the club would be wise to find another solution for their rotation excess before the unintended consequences derail the season.