Ex-GM’s wild Astros prediction feels painfully out of touch

The Houston Astros are at a crossroads after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016. On the one hand, it appears that the sound of them falling out of first place in the AL West and out of the playoff picture entirely was the sound of the window closing. Or, if your former MLB general manager, Jim Bowden, maybe the fun has just begun.

In his column for The Athletic (subscription required) ranking the non-playoff teams with the best chance to return to the October dance in 2026, Bowden ranked the Astros as the No. 1 club with the greatest shot to return to playoff prominence.

Citing injuries as the main reason for their downfall this season, he writes, "When healthy, the middle of the Astros’ lineup can carry their offense. It’s a group led by José Altuve, Alvarez, Christian Walker, Peña, Carlos Correa and Isaac Paredes. They also have two young position players who are going to continue to improve, outfielders Cam Smith and Zach Cole."

Bowden continues, "The Astros do have a significant decision to make with Valdez, and if they were to lose him in free agency, their top offseason priority will be to improve their starting pitching."

Unfortunately, there are more than a few issues with Jim's prognostications.

Jim Bowden's prediction that the Astros will return to the playoffs feels off-base unless drastic changes are made

Bowden essentially breaks this into two parts: the lineup and the rotation, so let's do the same. First, while he has a point that there are some talented hitters in Houston's lineup, and that with a healthy Yordan Alvarez, it looks more formidable, he's still overlooking several key concerns.

Take a closer look at Jose Altuve's performance in 2025. The 2017 AL MVP's total line was .265/.329/.442, which was good for a .771 OPS. However, that .771 OPS is still 20 points lower than 2024's results, and roughly 150 points lower than his 2023 and 2022 results when he posted .915 and .921 marks, respectively.

Fine, he's declining, but .771 is still fine performance for a complementary piece, right? Sure, but the splits show that Altuve's final line was heavily buoyed by an incredibly hot July. That month, he registered a 1.055 OPS while batting .363. It was vintage Altuve. However, the remaining five months of the season, he posted marks of .725, .743, .745, .695, and .680, with the latter two numbers representing what he did in August and September. Altuve is 35, and he is slowing down.

The other pieces in the lineup include Carlos Correa, who underwent a major power outage, Christian Walker, who was so awful they tried to trade him at the deadline, and Cam Smith and Zach Cole. The former struggled mightily after a decent two months to begin the year, and the other looked good in all of.... 52 plate appearances. These youngsters have promise, but they're both unrealized potential right now.

So yes, you can put Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, and Isaac Paredes all in the win column, but it still isn't enough, especially considering questions about whether or not Jake Meyers can repeat his surprising offensive outburst, as well as whether or not Jesus Sanchez even survives the non-tender deadline.

There are a lot of holes in the lineup that need to be addressed, but the rotation is in even worse shape. With Framber Valdez unlikely to return, it consists of Hunter Brown and... not much else.

Houston had 13 pitchers start at least two games, and the 11 not named Brown or Valdez combined or a 4.53 ERA. Looking forward to 2026, many of those guys won't be available, either because of injuries or because they are no longer on the team. Houston will make additions, but unless it is going to add two or three impact arms to the rotation, this simply can't be looked at as a playoff-caliber unit.

Lastly, there is a legitimate question of who leads the team. Dana Brown's contract status is in flux, and with that comes a lot of uncertainty for Joe Espada. Regime change likely means rebuild at this point in the game, and with a mostly barren farm system, the Astros could definitely use one of those.

The only saving grace for this club to return to the ranks of perennial contenders would be owner Jim Crane opening his wallet significantly wider than he has in years passed. Although if he were to do that now, he should have done that a year ago and kept Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker in the fold. Regardless, the chances of that happening are less likely than a snowstorm in August.