Don't be shocked if this Astros player is gone by the 2026 trade deadline

Predicting what will happen at the trade deadline in April typically feels like a fool's errand; however, given the circumstances surrounding the Houston Astros in 2026, no matter what happens, the player most likely to be moved is almost a lock.

All offseason, Isaac Paredes was engulfed in trade rumors. The reason he's still in Houston is a lack of leverage. The Astros weren't going to give him away, but that doesn't mean that they were never interested in moving him.

The trade deadline represents a reset for those pursuits. Opposing teams no longer have free agents to distract them from a Paredes deal. Some clubs might realize that the alternatives they went with aren't up to snuff. Others will find that they never truly addressed the position, after all. Still others will be looking for injury replacements, much like how Paredes' injury last year paved the way for Carlos Correa to come back home.

No matter how the season plays out, trading Isaac Paredes at the deadline will be the Astros' best path forward

The Astros may or may not be contenders come July. The offense has been awesome so far, ranking second in the league in OPS through April 8 with a .825 mark. The pitching staff has been abysmal with a 6.05 ERA that ranks 29th. The pitching front only seems to be getting worse, as Hunter Brown will be out for at least a couple of months, and Cristian Javier's uncertainty has the club reaching to J.P. France for a lifeline.

Meanwhile, if Christian Walker continues to look like a rejuvenated force, Paredes will become even more superfluous than he seemed over the offseason.

The season's first couple of weeks hint that several contenders will be in the third base market. The Yankees weren't thought to be looking for a new third baseman after trading for Ryan McMahon at last year's trade deadline, but he's been among the very worst hitters in the league so far, and his ineptitude stems back to his arrival in New York.

Boston hasn't gotten what it hoped for out of Caleb Durbin. The Pittsburgh Pirates' calling up Konnor Griffin has further highlighted the hot corner as a weak point on their roster. That's just for starters. There's a good chance that there are more suitors than available options at the deadline, swinging the leverage pendulum back to the Astros' favor.

The way things look, capitalizing on that demand by swapping Paredes for pitching help might be the club's best course of action. Whether that's in the form of a veteran or younger arms depends on where Houston is in the standings.

If the Astros are in the race, a swap of Paredes for a starter could work. If they fall out of the race, he might be their best chip to jumpstart a rebuild. That might be the start of a bigger conversation about this contention window's permanent closure.

The point is, no matter where the Astros lie in the division and wild card chases, Paredes is the best chip to cash in to vault the team towards a brighter future. Because of that, he will almost certainly be a goner by the end of July.