Dana Brown's unique handling of top Astros prospects could have an unexpected payoff

The Houston Astros are on the verge of exploiting a little-known loophole that could result in a significant amount of ammunition coming the team's way as the work to rebuild a farm system that has been decimated by years of contending, penalties from the sign stealing scandal, and in some cases, betting on the wrong prospects.

Yet, an aggressive strategy that brought budding stars Hunter Brown and Cam Smith to the majors at breakneck speeds has opened the door for the Astros to gain some serious assets to inject talent into their pipeline, thanks to the success of those players.

As The Athletic's Chandler Rome laid out in a recent piece, the Astros may snag two additional draft picks immediately after the first round in 2026, depending on how these two roster cornerstones perform in the awards races, thanks to MLB's little-known Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI).

Instituted as part of 2022's collective bargaining agreement, PPI aims to end service time manipulation by rewarding teams who promote clearly-ready prospects earlier in their careers. There are a few mechanisms here, and it can get a bit complicated, but essentially, players with little to no MLB service time need to break camp with their club and then finish in the top three of a major award or win Rookie of the Year before hitting arbitration.

The Astros' aggressiveness with Hunter Brown and Cam Smith is paying dividends today and in the future

For Hunter Brown to yield another draft pick, the pathway is simple: he must finish in the top three in the AL Cy Young voting this season. While there are some threats to his taking home the hardware, an ERA of 1.82 through his first 17 starts is the foundation for a really compelling case. Most importantly, all he needs is a top-three finish, which, given his dominance, seems extremely likely.

As for Cam Smith, the road is a bit more bumpy. He either needs to win the AL Rookie of the Year outright or finish top-three in the AL MVP voting. Barring some sort of superhuman explosion in the second half, the latter isn't likely.

As for the AL Rookie of the Year chase, Smith ranks third among AL rookies in fWAR through July 3, at 1.7, trailing the Athletics' Jacob Wilson (2.9) and the Boston Red Sox' Carlos Narvaez (2.7). There's work to be done, but there's also some reason to believe in Smith making a charge in the second half.

For one thing, his supreme athleticism has led to a surprisingly good defensive performance while learning a new position on the fly. For another, after some early-season doldrums, his bat is beginning to wake up and perform as expected. After a .679 OPS in the season's first month, Smith posted a .788 mark in May and then turned it up further in June to the tune of an .849 OPS. He hit over .300 in both May and June, as well.

Meanwhile, Wilson had an absurd May with a .975 OPS, but in April posted a still good but more pedestrian .792 mark, and a similar .789 mark in June. His hack-at-everything approach has worked so far, but leaves him vulnerable as the season progresses. As for Narvaez, the 26-year-old catcher came out of nowhere, and the Astros will hope he turns into a pumpkin in the second half while the dog days of the summer take their toll.

Should the Astros accomplish this feat, it will be doubly sweet. Not only will it prove that Brown has arrived as a true superstar and that Smith might not be far behind, but it will also potentially open the floodgates to acquiring more impact prospects into the system, giving hope that they can repeat the process down the road. It's too early to tell if Houston can pull it off, but successfully exploiting this new rule could have dynastic implications for the club.

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