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On the surface, Houston Astros fans should be thrilled with Cristian Javier's rehab progress. After going down with a right shoulder strain back in April, it has been a pretty long road to get to this point, but Javier is putting up the results you want to see while on a rehab assignment. On Saturday, it looked like Javier put up his best rehab start yet with six scoreless innings at Triple-A. However, a closer look suggests that not EVERYTHING is quite right with Javier just yet.
Again, this isn't about the stat line. Javier struck out four batters and walked two in the start after struggling to find the strike zone previously. For a guy that has been on the shelf for almost three months, you take that every time. The issue is that Javier's velocity was down in that same start, and time is running out for the Astros to make a decision on him.
The Astros have to make a decision on Cristian Javier by Friday, when his 30-day minor-league rehab assignment clock expires. A fascinating roster crunch looms on the pitching staff - https://t.co/APT9kDnT0V
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 29, 2026
Cristian Javier's return no longer seems far off after latest Astros clue
In that rehab start, Javier averaged 91.8 mph on his four-seam fastball, which is about one full mile per hour less than what he averaged in the majors earlier this season. For a guy that is coming off a shoulder injury, any sort of velo drop is going to get some attention.
However, in Javier's case, that concern may be overblown. It is entirely possible that he was taking a little bit off his fastball to make sure he threw more strikes in what was likely to be his last rehab outing. It is also true that Javier has never really been much of a velo guy. While his four-seam averaged 92.9 mph in 2025, it only averaged 91.7 mph in 2024, which is right in line with where he is right now.
That we haven't heard any concern from the organization is pretty telling in this situation. Odds are extremely good that he will be activated from the IL before the Friday deadline to end his rehab assignment. As to what he will look like when he does return to the Astros (as well as whose roster spot he is going to take), well...we'll just have to wait and see.
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