Bryan Abreu has been a revelation for the Astros except for one big problem

Aside from giving up a rather unfortunate walk-off homer to Athletics' slugger Nick Kurtz this week, Houston Astros reliever Bryan Abreu has been awesome in 2025. Through 33 appearances, Abreu sports a 1.97 ERA, 2.97 FIP, and has maintained a strong strikeout rate throughout.

In terms of non-closing relievers, Abreu has been one of the absolute best and Houston needed him to be exactly that type of player after trading away Ryan Pressly. Abreu does, however, have one issue that could come back to haunt him soon.

Abreu has always been a pitcher who gives up some walks. From 2021 to 2024, Abreu posted a very reasonable 2.81 ERA, but it came with walking 3.9 batters per nine innings pitched. You generally want to be around one walk less than that, but Abreu made it work, so the issues were largely ignored. However, those free passes have been markedly worse in 2025, and it threatens to derail all the good work Abreu has done this season.

Astros reliever Bryan Abreu has to cut down on the walks this season

There is so much to like about what Abreu is doing in 2025. His fastball and breaking stuff both grade out well, and his ability to get hitters to swing and miss at pitches in the strike zone is among the best of the best in all of baseball (98th percentile). Between how hard he throws and the above average extension he gets, it's no wonder why Abreu gives opposing hitters fits.

However, walking 5.3 batters per inning is in the bottom 4% of MLB. While opposing hitters are swinging and missing at pitches he throws in the zone, they aren't really chasing his pitches out of the zone. When Abreu gives up contact, it's often loud with an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph (bottom 8% in baseball). At some point, all of those extra baserunners and hard contact is going to start happening at the same time. Then things will get ugly.

Fortunately, it seems like there is a solution for Abreu; he simply has to throw more pitches in the strike zone. That may seem obvious, but there are valid reasons to throw pitches out of the zone, including to keep hitters off balance, change their eye levels, and give them pause before they try to turn on one.

A pitcher like Abreu, with his profile, is going to live outside the zone a bit and should. But it sure seems like a 10% increase in the amount of strikes he throws could pay massive dividends for him and the Astros going forward. Opposing batters aren't going to be able to hit those pitches anyway, so Abreu needs to keep it in the zone more often.

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